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Do Commodity Index Traders Destabilize Agricultural Futures Prices?

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  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Farrukh Javed
  • Patrick M. Stephan

Abstract

Motivated by repeated price spikes and crashes over the last decade, we investigate whether the intensive investment activities of commodity index traders (CITs) have destabilized agricultural futures markets. Using a stochastic volatility model, we treat conditional volatility as an unobserved component, and analyze whether it has been affected by the expected and unexpected open interest of CITs. However, with respect to twelve increasingly financialized grain, livestock, and soft commodities, we do not find robust evidence that this is the case. We thus conclude that justifying a tighter regulation of CITs by blaming them for more volatile agricultural futures markets appears to be unwarranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Bohl & Farrukh Javed & Patrick M. Stephan, 2013. "Do Commodity Index Traders Destabilize Agricultural Futures Prices?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 59(2), pages 125-148.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v59_y2013_i2_q2_p125-148
    DOI: 10.3790/aeq.59.2.125
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Çınar, Gökhan & Uzmay, Ayse, 2017. "Does Fear (Vix Index) Incite Volatility In Food Prices?," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(2), April.
    2. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
    4. Pies, Ingo, 2015. "Kommentar zur Spekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen: Eine Replik auf Christian Conrad," Discussion Papers 2015-11, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    5. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2018. "Speculative activity and returns volatility of Chinese agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 69-91.
    6. Torun Fretheim & Glenn Kristiansen, 2015. "Commodity market risk from 1995 to 2013: an extreme value theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(26), pages 2768-2782, June.
    7. Guo, Jin & Tanaka, Tetsuji, 2022. "Do biofuel production and financial speculation in agricultural commodities influence African food prices? New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    9. Libo Yin & Jing Nie & Liyan Han, 2021. "Intermediary capital risk and commodity futures volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 577-640, May.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity index traders; futures prices; agricultural markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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