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Factors Affecting an Economy's Tolerance and Delay of Response to the Impact of a Positive Oil Price Shock

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  • Bwo-Nung Huang

Abstract

This paper applies a multivariate threshold model to estimate a countryÕs threshold level of economic tolerance (c) and delay of response (d) to the impact of a positive price change and its shock. Regression analysis is employed to investigate the factors affecting c and d. We find: (1) as a country becomes more advanced in economic development and acquires a lower ratio of energy use in its industry and transportation sectors, the threshold of tolerance is greater as evidenced by the positive impact of an oil price change and its shock; (2) if a country has a lower ratio of energy use in the industry sector, a lower energy import ratio and is more advanced in economic development, it will have a longer delay; and (3) as an economy becomes more advanced, the length of the response time from the impact of the shock of an oil price change will be longer.

Suggested Citation

  • Bwo-Nung Huang, 2008. "Factors Affecting an Economy's Tolerance and Delay of Response to the Impact of a Positive Oil Price Shock," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2008v29-04-a01
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Martina, Esteban & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2012. "Cyclical behavior of crude oil markets and economic recessions in the period 1986–2010," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 47-58.
    2. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    3. Ju, Keyi & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, P. & Wu, Junmin, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in China: An empirical study based on Hilbert–Huang transform and event study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1053-1066.
    4. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2009. "Identifying the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: An empirical mode decomposition analysis of US data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5417-5426, December.
    5. Yeh, Fang-Yu & Hu, Jin-Li & Lin, Cheng-Hsun, 2012. "Asymmetric impacts of international energy shocks on macroeconomic activities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 10-22.
    6. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Zhang, Yuqiang, 2016. "An incentive-oriented early warning system for predicting the co-movements between oil price shocks and macroeconomy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 452-463.
    7. Gnansounou, Edgard & Dong, Jun, 2010. "Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2846-2857, June.
    8. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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