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Implications of Output Price Risk and Operating Leverage for the Evaluation of Petroleum Development Projects

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  • Gordon Salahor

Abstract

This paper is the first in a series that describes how Modem Asset Pricing (MAP) may be used for project evaluation in the upstream petroleum industry. It shows how MAP methods can be used to value a project, if it i's possible to split its cash-flows into two components: one for revenue and one for cost. Two design choices for a "now or never " natural gas field development are used as examples of what can be gained by this type of approach to project evaluation. The first choice involves a tradeoff between capital and operating costs, while the second involves a tradeoff between costs and potential production rate. The results show that the use of standard DCF methods can induce systematic, and possibly misleading, biases into the analyses that lie behind project design and selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon Salahor, 1998. "Implications of Output Price Risk and Operating Leverage for the Evaluation of Petroleum Development Projects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 13-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1998v19-01-a02
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    Cited by:

    1. Emhjellen, Magne & Alaouze, Chris M., 2002. "Project valuation when there are two cashflow streams," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 455-467, September.
    2. Celine de Quatrebarbes & Bertrand Laporte, 2015. "What do we know about the mineral resource rent sharing in Africa?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01146279, HAL.
    3. Luis M. Abadie, 2009. "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-31, September.
    4. Emhjellen, Magne & Alaouze, Chris M., 2003. "A comparison of discounted cashflow and modern asset pricing methods--project selection and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1213-1220, September.
    5. Espinoza, R. David & Rojo, Javier, 2017. "Towards sustainable mining (Part I): Valuing investment opportunities in the mining sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 7-18.
    6. Lund, Diderik, 2009. "Marginal versus Average Beta of Equity under Corporate Taxation," Memorandum 12/2009, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    7. Laporte, Bertrand & de Quatrebarbes, Céline, 2015. "What do we know about the sharing of mineral resource rent in Africa?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 239-249.
    8. Guj, Pietro & Chandra, Atul, 2019. "Comparing different real option valuation approaches as applied to a copper mine," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 180-189.
    9. Tatiana Ponomarenko & Eugene Marin & Sergey Galevskiy, 2022. "Economic Evaluation of Oil and Gas Projects: Justification of Engineering Solutions in the Implementation of Field Development Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Bertrand Laporte & Celine de Quatrebarbes & Yannick Bouterige, 2022. "Tax design and rent sharing in mining sector: Evidence from African gold‐producing countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 1176-1196, August.
    11. Espinoza, R. David & Morris, Jeremy W.F., 2017. "Towards sustainable mining (part II): Accounting for mine reclamation and post reclamation care liabilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 29-38.
    12. Samis, Michael & Davis, Graham A. & Laughton, David & Poulin, Richard, 2005. "Valuing uncertain asset cash flows when there are no options: A real options approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 285-298, December.
    13. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(15), pages 901-912, December.
    14. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2010. "A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 988-1000, March.
    15. Dou, Shi-quan & Liu, Jiang-yi & Xiao, Jian-zhong & Pan, Wen, 2020. "Economic feasibility valuing of deep mineral resources based on risk analysis: Songtao manganese ore - China case study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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