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Mnemonomics: The Sunk Cost Fallacy as a Memory Kludge

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  • Sandeep Baliga
  • Jeffrey C. Ely

Abstract

We offer a theory of the sunk cost fallacy as an optimal response to limited memory. As new information arrives, a decision-maker may not remember all the reasons he began a project. The sunk cost gives additional information about future profits and informs subsequent decisions. The Concorde effect makes the investor more eager to complete projects when sunk costs are high and the pro-rata effect makes the investor less eager. In a controlled experiment we had subjects play a simple version of the model. In a baseline treatment subjects exhibit the pro-rata bias. When we induce memory constraints the effect reverses and the subjects exhibit the Concorde bias. (JEL D24, D83, G31)

Suggested Citation

  • Sandeep Baliga & Jeffrey C. Ely, 2011. "Mnemonomics: The Sunk Cost Fallacy as a Memory Kludge," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 35-67, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:35-67
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.3.4.35
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart & Filip Matějka, 2017. "Rational Inattention Dynamics: Inertia and Delay in Decision‐Making," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 521-553, March.
    2. Negrini, Marcello & Riedl, Arno & Wibral, Matthias, 2022. "Sunk cost in investment decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1105-1135.
    3. Herold, Florian & Netzer, Nick, 2023. "Second-best probability weighting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 112-125.
    4. Chao Ma, 2021. "Be Cautious In The Last Month: The Sunk Cost Fallacy Held By Car Insurance Policyholders," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1199-1236, August.
    5. Basu Sudipta & Waymire Gregory B., 2019. "Historical Cost and Conservatism Are Joint Adaptations That Help Identify Opportunity Cost," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, March.
    6. Anouar El Haji & Sander Onderstal, 2019. "Trading places: An experimental comparison of reallocation mechanisms for priority queuing," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 670-686, November.
    7. Shakun D. Mago & Roman M. Sheremeta, 2019. "New Hampshire Effect: behavior in sequential and simultaneous multi-battle contests," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(2), pages 325-349, June.
    8. Hagenbach, Jeanne & Koessler, Frédéric, 2022. "Selective memory of a psychological agent," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Igor Kopylov & Joshua Miller, 2018. "Subjective beliefs and confidence when facts are forgotten," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 281-299, December.
    10. Leung, Benson Tsz Kin, 2020. "Limited cognitive ability and selective information processing," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 345-369.
    11. Priyodorshi Banerjee & S. Chandrasekhar & P. Srikant, 2019. "Persistent Sunk Cost Fallacy in a Real Effort Experiment," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 7(1), pages 161-172, June.
    12. Michael Seiler & Eric Walden, 2015. "A Neurological Explanation of Strategic Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 215-230, August.
    13. Liang Guo, 2023. "The Mnemonomics of Contractual Screening," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1739-1757, March.
    14. Mukesh Eswaran & Hugh M. Neary, 2016. "The Evolutionary Logic Of Honoring Sunk Costs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 835-846, April.
    15. Philippe Choné & Laurent Linnemer, 2022. "A Class of Behavioral Models for the Profit-Maximizing Firm," CESifo Working Paper Series 9718, CESifo.
    16. Manel Baucells & Woonam Hwang, 2017. "A Model of Mental Accounting and Reference Price Adaptation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4201-4218, December.
    17. Fuhai HONG & Xiaojian ZHAO, 2014. "Sunk Cost as a Self-Disciplining Device," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1503, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    18. Calzolari, Giacomo & Nardotto, Mattia, 2011. "Nudging with information: a randomized field experiment on reminders and feedback," CEPR Discussion Papers 8571, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Matthew G. Nagler, 2023. "Thoughts matter: a theory of motivated preference," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(2), pages 211-247, February.
    20. Teck-Hua Ho & I. P. L. Png & Sadat Reza, 2018. "Sunk Cost Fallacy in Driving the World’s Costliest Cars," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1761-1778, April.
    21. Cunningham, Thomas, 2013. "Biases and Implicit Knowledge," MPRA Paper 50292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Sanjay Jain & Haipeng (Allan) Chen, 2023. "Sunk Cost Bias and Time Inconsistency: A Strategic Analysis of Pricing Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2383-2400, April.
    23. Kopylov, Igor & Miller, Joshua Benjamin, 2018. "Subjective Beliefs And Confidence When Facts Are Forgotten," OSF Preprints wktcp, Center for Open Science.
    24. Spiegler, Ran, 2010. ""But Can't we Get the Same Thing with a Standard Model?" Rationalizing Bounded-Rationality Models," MPRA Paper 21428, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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