Farmers’ Expectations of Climate Action: Evidence from an Information Experiment

A key measure to reduce chemical fertilizer application, and thereby mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, is the introduction of clover into grazing grass. However, adoption of this measure remains low. In this context, information and expectations can influence adoption decisions around clover. So far, there is little evidence of how farmers update their expectations in response to information. In this study, we used an information experiment to assess how providing information affects farmers’ expectations about clover, and how this in turn influences subsequent attitudes. We collected data from over 300 dairy farmers in Ireland, which were randomly assigned into two information treatment groups and one active control group. While both treatments provided information about the reduction in chemical fertilizer associated with adoption, each treatment framed the information differently. To elicit farmers’ expectations, we combined qualitative open-ended questions and quantitative point estimates. As for the subsequent attitudes, we elicited farmers’ intentions and willingness to accept (WTA) clover adoption. We estimated treatment effects by employing a two-stage least squares regression. To examine responses from the open-ended questions, we used three text analysis methods: wordclouds, keyness, and topic analyses. We document that farmers have biased expectations about clover adoption. They underestimate the reduction of chemical fertilizer that is possible with adoption, and we provide causal evidence that information reduces misperceptions by up to 19%. Yet, through the text analysis, we discover that information increases the likelihood of having not only a positive change, but also a negative change in opinions around clover adoption. Lastly, there was no meaningful impact of the updated expectations on intentions and WTA, which underlines the complexity of adoption decisions. Nonetheless, our findings are relevant to help construct accurate expectations that can facilitate more widespread adoption of clover.