Gender, Health and Socio-demographic Influences on Updating Subjective Survival Probabilities

The goals of the study are to investigate whether individuals update their survival expectations consistently with changes in their mortality risk profiles as well as to assess whether the degree of consistency varies by gender. We use a longitudinal dataset from the 6th and 7th Waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. For the statistical analysis we employ generalised linear models. Our results indicate that males and females revise their survival expectations if they experience widowhood, a deterioration or improvement in self-rated health or functional limitations, an increase in the number of chronic conditions or income or life satisfaction, and BMI transitions from normal to underweight consistently. Such revisions are in line with actual mortality patterns. Males revise their survival expectations consistently with actual mortality patterns, following a drop in income or a BMI transition from underweight to normal. On the other hand, females do not revise their SSPs consistently with actual mortality patterns for BMI transition from overweight to obese and from underweight to normal. Both genders do not revise their SSPs consistently with actual mortality patterns for BMI transition from underweight to overweight or obese. Finally, divorced females revise their survival expectations consistently with actual mortality patterns whereas divorced males do not.