Population Concentration In Less Developed Countries: New Evidence

Economic theory associates the increase in population concentration, i.e., the proportion of national population residing in the core economic region, with scale and agglomeration economies. Wheaton and Shishido (1981) estimated that these persist until real per capita national income reaches 5,000 1985 U.S. dollars (USD). After this point in a country's economic development, they predicted, population redistribution towards the core region will case and the proportion of national population residing in the core region will commence to decline. The experience of developed countries (DCS) in the 1970s and 1980s broadly contormed to this pattern, albeit with exceptions. Evidence from less developed countries (LDCs) through the 1980 round of censuses led Venning (1986) to propose a weakened version of the USD 5,000 rule in which this point is characterized only by a slowing of rate of population re†distribution towards the core, not by an out right by a slowing of rate of population re†distribution towards the core, not by an out right reversal. This paper updates previously reported trends in population redistribution in LDCs and reports on many new countries. Taken as a whole post†war data reinforce the need for caution of the sort expressed by Vining. While there is weak negative correlation between the rate of bet migration into the core region and per capita income, the share of population residing in the core region may continue to rise even when per capita income has grown to well beyond USD 5,000.