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State of the Art---Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Fischer, Ilan & Budescu, David V., 2005. "When do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The development of confidence and performance in categorical decision tasks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 39-53, September.
  2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:1:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Xiaohua Zhao & Yuhuang Zheng & Fang Wan, 0. "Unrelated efforts trigger wishful winning? The impact of extraneous efforts on judgments of winning probability among Chinese consumers," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-22.
  4. Lam, K.Y. & Koning, A.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2007. "Confidence intervals for maximal reliability of probability judgments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  5. Thomas W. Keelin & Bradford W. Powley, 2011. "Quantile-Parameterized Distributions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 206-219, September.
  6. Saemi Park & David V. Budescu, 2015. "Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve calibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(2), pages 130-143, March.
  7. Brenner, Lyle & Griffin, Dale & Koehler, Derek J., 2005. "Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 64-81, May.
  8. Mehrez, A. & Yuan, Y. & Gafni, A., 1995. "The search for information -- A patient perspective on multiple opinions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 244-262, September.
  9. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:857-869 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Brenner, Lyle A., 2003. "A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 87-110, January.
  11. James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
  12. Daniel G. Goldstein & David Rothschild, 2014. "Lay understanding of probability distributions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, January.
  13. William F. Wright, 1988. "Comparaison empirique des méthodes d'inférence de probabilités subjectives," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 58-69, September.
  14. David Budescu & Yuanchao Bo, 2015. "Analyzing Test-Taking Behavior: Decision Theory Meets Psychometric Theory," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1105-1122, December.
  15. Stone, Eric R. & Opel, Ryan B., 2000. "Training to Improve Calibration and Discrimination: The Effects of Performance and Environmental Feedback," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 282-309, November.
  16. Matthias Meyer & Cathérine Grisar & Felix Kuhnert, 2011. "The impact of biases on simulation-based risk aggregation: modeling cognitive influences on risk assessment," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 79-105, September.
  17. Luc Anselin, 1988. "Model Validation in Spatial Econometrics: A Review and Evaluation of Alternative Approaches," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 11(3), pages 279-316, December.
  18. David V. Budescu & Timothy R. Johnson, 2011. "A model-based approach for the analysis of the calibration of probability judgments," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(8), pages 857-869, December.
  19. Jeryl L. Mumpower & Gary McClelland, 2002. "Measurement Error, Skewness, and Risk Analysis: Coping with the Long Tail of the Distribution," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 277-290, April.
  20. Mel W Khaw & Luminita Stevens & Michael Woodford, 2021. "Individual differences in the perception of probability," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(4), pages 1-25, April.
  21. David V. Budescu & Eva Chen, 2015. "Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 267-280, February.
  22. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye, 2013. "Combining Experts: Decomposition and Aggregation Order," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1116-1127, June.
  23. Yuyu Fan & David V. Budescu & David Mandel & Mark Himmelstein, 2019. "Improving Accuracy by Coherence Weighting of Direct and Ratio Probability Judgments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 197-217, September.
  24. Peng, Weiwen & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Li, Yanfeng & Zuo, Ming J. & Xie, Min, 2013. "Life cycle reliability assessment of new products—A Bayesian model updating approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 109-119.
  25. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Wang, Hua & Whittington, Dale, 2005. "Measuring individuals' valuation distributions using a stochastic payment card approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 143-154, November.
  27. Guillaume Hollard & Sébastien Massoni & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2016. "In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 80(3), pages 363-387, March.
  28. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:323-362 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Ali E. Abbas & David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu & Ryan Haggerty, 2008. "A Comparison of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probability vs. Fixed Variable Values," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 190-202, December.
  30. López Martín, M.M. & García García, C.B. & García Pérez, J. & Sánchez Granero, M.A., 2012. "An alternative for robust estimation in Project Management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 443-451.
  31. Wang, W., 1997. "Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 516-529, June.
  32. E K Doyle & C-G Lee & D I Cho, 2009. "Justification for the next generation of maintenance modelling techniques," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(4), pages 461-470, April.
  33. Mark Himmelstein & Pavel Atanasov & David V. Budescu, 2021. "Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(2), pages 323-362, March.
  34. Ozer, Muammer, 2008. "Improving the accuracy of expert predictions of the future success of new internet services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 1085-1099, February.
  35. Saurabh Bansal & Genaro J. Gutierrez, 2020. "Estimating Uncertainties Using Judgmental Forecasts with Expert Heterogeneity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 363-380, March.
  36. Eldad Yechiam & David V. Budescu, 2006. "The Sensitivity of Probability Assessments to Time Units and Performer Characteristics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 177-193, September.
  37. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
  38. Morera, Osvaldo F. & Budescu, David V., 1998. "A Psychometric Analysis of the "Divide and Conquer" Principle in Multicriteria Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 187-206, September.
  39. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2011. "An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 380-392, October.
  40. Ali E. Abbas & David V. Budescu & Yuhong (Rola) Gu, 2010. "Assessing Joint Distributions with Isoprobability Contours," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 997-1011, June.
  41. Lau, Hon-Shiang & Somarajan, C., 1995. "A proposal on improved procedures for estimating task-time distributions in PERT," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 39-52, August.
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