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A model-based approach for the analysis of the calibration of probability judgments

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  • David V. Budescu
  • Timothy R. Johnson
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    Abstract

    The calibration of probability or confidence judgments concerns the association between the judgments and some estimate of the correct probabilities of events. Researchers rely on estimates using relative frequencies computed by aggregating data over observations. We show that this approach creates conceptual problems, and may result in the confounding of explanatory variables or unstable estimates. To circumvent these problems we propose using probability estimates obtained from statistical models---specifically mixed models for binary data---in the analysis of calibration. We illustrate this methodology by re-analyzing data from a published study and comparing the results from this approach to those based on relative frequencies. The model-based estimates avoid problems with confounding variables and provided more precise estimates, resulting in better inferences.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Judgment and Decision Making in its journal Judgment and Decision Making.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 8 (December)
    Pages: 857-869

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    Handle: RePEc:jdm:journl:v:6:y:2011:i:8:p:857-869

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    Related research

    Keywords: calibration; confidence judgments; mixed models; multilevel models; overconfidence; subjective probability.;

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    1. Thomas S. Wallsten & David V. Budescu & Rami Zwick, 1993. "Comparing the Calibration and Coherence of Numerical and Verbal Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 176-190, February.
    2. Thomas S. Wallsten & David V. Budescu, 1983. "State of the Art---Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 151-173, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Joseph B. Kadane & Baruch Fischhoff, 2013. "A cautionary note on global recalibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(1), pages 25-28, January.
    2. Michael D. Lee & Irina Danileiko, 2014. "Using cognitive models to combine probability estimates," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(3), pages 259-273, May.

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