Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts

Citations

Cited by:

1. Joshua Aaron Becker & Douglas Guilbeault & Edward Bishop Smith, 2022. "The Crowd Classification Problem: Social Dynamics of Binary-Choice Accuracy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3949-3965, May.
2. Jos Jansen & Jasper de Winter, 2016. "Improving model-based near-term GDP forecasts by subjective forecasts: A real-time exercise for the G7 countries," DNB Working Papers 507, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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4. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William Barnett, 2020. "Nowcasting Real Gdp For Saudi Arabia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202018, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2020.
   • Alkhareif, Ryadh M. & Barnett, William A., 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 104278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
5. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
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7. Petra Karanikić & Igor Mladenović & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović & Meysam Alizamir, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Prediction of economic growth by extreme learning approach based on science and technology transfer," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1395-1401, May.
8. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
9. Dorinth van Dijk & Jasper de Winter, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP using tone-adjusted time varying news topics: Evidence from the financial press," Working Papers 766, DNB.
10. Marković, Dušan & Petković, Dalibor & Nikolić, Vlastimir & Milovančević, Miloš & Petković, Biljana, 2017. "Soft computing prediction of economic growth based in science and technology factors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 217-220.
11. Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
    • Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2018. "Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms," CAMA Working Papers 2018-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
12. Hauber, Philipp, 2018. "Zur Kurzfristprognose mit Faktormodellen und Prognoseanpassungen," Kiel Insight 2018.5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
13. Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," Working Papers 754, DNB.
14. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 197-220, May.
    • Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Nowcasting real GDP growth with business tendency surveys data: A cross country analysis," KIER Working Papers 1002, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2020/5, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
15. Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2021. "On the Applicability of Dynamic Factor Models for Forecasting Real GDP Growth in Armenia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(1), pages 52-79, June.
    • Poghosyan, Karen & Poghosyan, Ruben, 2021. "On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
16. Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
17. Đokić, Aleksandar & Jović, Srđan, 2017. "Evaluation of agriculture and industry effect on economic health by ANFIS approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 396-399.
18. Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
    • Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2019/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
19. Etienne Farvaque & Florence Huart, 2017. "A policymaker’s guide to a Euro area stabilization fund," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 11-30, April.
    • Etienne Farvaque & Florence Huart, 2016. "A policymaker's guide to a Euro area stabilization fund," Post-Print hal-01526022, HAL.
20. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
21. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
22. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
23. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2022. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia1," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 333-345, April.
24. Feuerriegel, Stefan & Gordon, Julius, 2019. "News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: A semantic path model for interpretable predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 162-175.
25. Joshua Becker & Abdullah Almaatouq & EmH{o}ke-'Agnes Horv'at, 2020. "Network Structures of Collective Intelligence: The Contingent Benefits of Group Discussion," Papers 2009.07202, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
26. Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-33, December.
    • Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers 317, Bank of Greece.
27. Joshua Becker & Douglas Guilbeault & Ned Smith, 2021. "The Crowd Classification Problem: Social Dynamics of Binary Choice Accuracy," Papers 2104.11300, arXiv.org.
28. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
29. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2017. "Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods and their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations," European Economy - Discussion Papers 070, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
30. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
31. Igor Mladenović & Miloš Milovančević & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Analyzing of innovations influence on economic growth by fuzzy system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1297-1304, May.
32. Maksimović, Goran & Jović, Srđan & Jovanović, Radomir, 2017. "Economic growth rate management by soft computing approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 520-524.
33. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
34. Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial," Working Papers 2002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
35. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.