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Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Stressszenarien für die Jahre 2015 bis 2020

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Drygalla, Andrej
  • Lindner, Axel

Abstract

Die Weltproduktion dürfte im Herbst 2015 wie schon in der ersten Jahreshälfte nur in mäßigem Tempo expandieren. In den meisten fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften ist die Konjunktur recht robust. Dagegen hat sich in einer Reihe von Schwellenländern die Wirtschaftslage im Jahr 2015 nochmals verschlechtert. Insbesondere häufen sich Anzeichen für eine Verschärfung der Probleme in China. Im Prognosezeitraum wird sich das mäßige weltwirtschaftliche Expansionstempo kaum verändern. Die beiden Hauptrisiken für die Weltwirtschaft sind die Möglichkeit eines deutlichen Abschwungs in China und die Gefahr, dass der Fall der Rohstoffpreise zusammen mit den zu erwartenden Leitzinserhöhungen in den USA zu einem verstärkten Abzug von Kapital aus rohstoffexportierenden Schwellenländern führt.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Drygalla, Andrej & Lindner, Axel, 2016. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Stressszenarien für die Jahre 2015 bis 2020," IWH Online 4/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhonl:42016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Stressszenarien für die Jahre 2012 bis 2014," IWH Online 1/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    Konjunktur; Weltwirtschaft;

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