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German Economy Sees Moderate Upturn but Needs New Policies to Nurture Growth

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group presented its autumn report to the press on 8 October 2015 in Berlin. According to the group, the German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn; gross domestic product will increase by 1.8 percent in 2015 and in 2016 respectively. Growth will be driven by private consumption. In view of the world economy’s modest growth, exports are only expected to rise slightly, especially as the stimulating effect of the euro’s depreciation gradually starts to fade. There will be a more rapid expansion in employment, although unemployment is expected to grow slightly in 2016 as the large number of refugees currently arriving in Germany gradually impacts the labour market. Public budgets are expected to post a surplus of 13 billion euros in 2016. This will be significantly lower than the surplus of around 23 billion euros forecast for 2015, mainly due to additional expenditure related to tackling the influx of refugees.

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2015. "German Economy Sees Moderate Upturn but Needs New Policies to Nurture Growth," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(19), pages 03-62, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:19:p:03-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Arno Städtler, 2015. "Leasing and Asset Investment Rise at the Same Pace – Moderate Growth Also Expected for 2016," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(23), pages 67-77, December.
    2. Heinz Gebhardt & Lars-H. R. Siemers, 2018. "Zur strukturellen Finanzlage der Laender: eine aktuelle Auswertung und Methodenkritik," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201837, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Siemers Lars-H. & Gebhardt Heinz, 2020. "Die strukturelle Besserung der Länderfinanzen in der Niedrigzinsphase: die trügerische Leichtigkeit des Scheins," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 54-78, April.
    4. Feld, Lars P. & Hirsch, Patrick F. & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Wolfinger, Julia & Döhrn, Roland & Fuest, Angela & Micheli, Martin, 2017. "Auswirkungen der Rettungsprogramme auf die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Programmländer Portugal und Irland. Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 177813.
    5. Stefan Sauer & Arno Städtler, 2016. "Moderate Growth in Equipment Investment – 2016 Weaker Dynamic Forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(01), pages 25-28, January.
    6. Holtemöller, Oliver & Pohle, Felix & Zeddies, Götz, 2016. "Was Änderungen beim Rentenniveau die Beitragszahler kosten," IWH Online 2/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Marcell Göttert, 2018. "Tax Revenues Will Increase Slightly in the Next Few Years – Results of the October 2018 Tax Estimate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(22), pages 42-46, November.
    8. Holtemöller, Oliver & Drygalla, Andrej & Lindner, Axel, 2016. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Stressszenarien für die Jahre 2015 bis 2020," IWH Online 4/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2015 - Aufschwung gewinnt wieder an Fahrt [German Economy Winter 2015 - The German economy is regaining momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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