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On the sustainability of currency boards: Evidence from Argentina and Hong Kong

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  • Ho, Chun-Yu
  • Ho, Wai-Yip Alex

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of the currency board arrangements in Argentina and Hong Kong. We employ a Markov switching model with two regimes to infer the exchange rate pressure due to economic fundamentals and market expectations. The empirical results suggest that economic fundamentals and expectations are key determinants of a currency board’s sustainability. We also show that the government’s credibility played a more important role in Argentina than in Hong Kong. The trade surplus, real exchange rate and inflation rate were more important drivers of the sustainability of the Hong Kong currency board.

Suggested Citation

  • Ho, Chun-Yu & Ho, Wai-Yip Alex, 2009. "On the sustainability of currency boards: Evidence from Argentina and Hong Kong," IMFS Working Paper Series 20, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:20
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    Cited by:

    1. Roman Inderst & Manuel Klein, 2007. "Innovation, endogenous overinvestment, and incentive pay," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(4), pages 881-904, December.
    2. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2009. "Early-stage financing and firm growth in new industries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 276-291, August.
    3. Inderst, Roman, 2010. "Misselling (financial) products: The limits for internal compliance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 35-37, January.
    4. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller, 2010. "CEO Replacement Under Private Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2935-2969, August.
    5. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Mueller & Felix Münnich, 2006. "Financing a Portfolio of Projects," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1289-1325.
    6. Begović, Selena & Adnett, Nick & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "An investigation into the credibility of currency board arrangements in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 787-799.
    7. Inderst, Roman & Mueller, Holger M., 2008. "Bank capital structure and credit decisions," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 295-314, July.
    8. Roman Inderst, 2008. "'Irresponsible Lending' With A Better Informed Lender," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1499-1519, October.
    9. Inderst, Roman, 2009. "Loan origination under soft- and hard-information lending," IMFS Working Paper Series 27, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    10. Emil Kalchev, 2015. "The Currency Board In Bulgaria – Staus Quo And Perspectives," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 9(1), pages 554-562.

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