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Uncertainty, politics, and crises: The case for cash

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  • Rösl, Gerhard
  • Seitz, Franz

Abstract

We analyze the repercussions of different kinds of uncertainty on cash demand, including uncertainty of the digital infrastructures, confidence crises of the financial system, natural disasters, political uncertainties, and inflationary crises. Based on a comprehensive literature survey, theoretical considerations and complemented by case studies, we derive a classification scheme how cash holdings typically evolve in each of these types of uncertainty by separating between demand for domestic and international cash as well as between transaction and store of value balances. Hereby, we focus on the stabilizing macroeconomic properties of cash and recommend guidelines for cash supply by central banks and the banking system. Finally, we exemplify our analysis with five case studies from the developing world, namely Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.

Suggested Citation

  • Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2023. "Uncertainty, politics, and crises: The case for cash," IMFS Working Paper Series 186, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:186
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Claussen, Carl Andreas & Segendorff, Björn & Seitz, Franz, 2023. "Cash for Transactions or Store-of-Value? A comparative study on Sweden and peer countries," Working Paper Series 427, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash; banknotes; money; crises; stabilization; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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