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Weltwirtschaft im Frühjahr 2022 - Verlangsamte Expansion bei hoher Inflation
[World Economy in Spring 2022 - Slower growth amid higher inflation]

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Reents, Jan
  • Sonnenberg, Nils
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Der Krieg in der Ukraine belastet die Weltwirtschaft in einer Phase, in der die Inflation bereits stark gestiegen ist und die US-Notenbank das Ende der extrem expansiven Geldpolitik eingeläutet hat. Höhere Rohstoffpreise treiben die Inflation zusätzlich an und führen zusammen mit den Auswirkungen der Sanktionen auf Transportzeiten und Produktionsketten voraussichtlich dazu, dass Lieferengpässe die Produktion in den kommenden Monaten wieder stärker hemmen werden. Wir haben unsere Prognose für die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft deutlich abgesenkt, um 1 Prozentpunkt in diesem und um 0,4 Prozentpunkte im nächsten Jahr. Gleichwohl steigt die globale Produktion (auf der Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten) mit Raten von 3,5 bzw. 3,6 Prozent in beiden Jahren noch etwas stärker als im längerfristigen Trend. Denn die konjunkturellen Auftriebskräfte sind beträchtlich, da die Corona-Pandemie die Weltwirtschaft in immer geringerem Maße beeinträchtigen wird. Covid-19 bleibt aber neben den Unwägbarkeiten im Zusammenhang mit dem Ukrainekonflikt ein gewichtiges Risiko für die Weltwirtschaft, vor allem wenn Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Omikron-Variante die Produktion in China empfindlich beeinträchtigen sollten.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kooths, Stefan & Reents, Jan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2022. "Weltwirtschaft im Frühjahr 2022 - Verlangsamte Expansion bei hoher Inflation [World Economy in Spring 2022 - Slower growth amid higher inflation]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 87, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:87
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; Schwellenländer; Geldpolitik; advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy;
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