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On the edge: Delays in election results and electoral violence in Sub-Sahara Africa

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  • Saibu, Ghadafi

Abstract

Does the length of time passing between elections and the announcement of elections results increase the risk of post-election violence? The declaration of official election results is a crucial moment in the electoral cycle. When electoral management bodies (EMBs) take longer than expected to announce official election results, it can signal to the opposition that the election is being stolen. Following this logic, this paper argues that the length of time between elections and the announcement of the official results acts as a signal of possible voter fraud, thereby increasing incentives for post-election violence. Hence, the paper hypothesises that a long length of time between elections and the announcement of official results increases the risk of post-election violence. This hypothesis is examined with an original dataset of election results declarations in African countries from 1997 to 2022. After controlling for important confounders that could influence delays in reporting and violence, the article empirically demonstrates that a longer length of time between elections and the announcement of official election results increases the risk of post-election violence. In doing so, this paper makes a significant contribution to studies of elections, and electoral violence. Its provision of a new dataset on election results declarations in African countries is also a significant contribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Saibu, Ghadafi, 2023. "On the edge: Delays in election results and electoral violence in Sub-Sahara Africa," IDOS Discussion Papers 19/2023, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diedps:283125
    DOI: 10.23661/idp19.2023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Idean Salehyan & Cullen S. Hendrix & Jesse Hamner & Christina Case & Christopher Linebarger & Emily Stull & Jennifer Williams, 2012. "Social Conflict in Africa: A New Database," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 503-511, September.
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    3. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. & Hyde, Susan D. & Jablonski, Ryan S., 2014. "When Do Governments Resort to Election Violence?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 149-179, January.
    4. Rubén Ruiz-Rufino & Sarah Birch, 2020. "The effect of alternation in power on electoral intimidation in democratizing regimes," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 126-139, January.
    5. Fjelde, Hanne & Höglund, Kristine, 2016. "Electoral Institutions and Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 297-320, April.
    6. Hyde, Susan D. & Marinov, Nikolay, 2012. "Which Elections Can Be Lost?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 191-210, April.
    7. Sarah Birch & Ursula Daxecker & Kristine Höglund, 2020. "Electoral violence: An introduction," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 3-14, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Election violence; delayed elections; post-election violence; elections results declarations; announcement of elections results; Africa;
    All these keywords.

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