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To Invest or Insure? A Comment on Wright (2008)

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Wright (2008) investigates how the impact of foreign aid on GDP growth in dictatorships depends on the dictator’s time horizon, i.e., how much longer the dictator expects to be in office. The empirical analysis finds a strong positive impact of aid on growth for dictators with long time horizons and a strong negative impact for dictators with short time horizons. Rerunning Wright’s specifications, we find the positive effect depends on two outlier observations for Jordan. Omitting these observations, aid has no effect in long time horizon dictatorships but continues to have a negative impact in short time horizon dictatorships. Thus, Wright’s core result—the dependence on leadership tenure expectations—survives, but the policy implications are radically different.

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File URL: http://repec.library.villanova.edu/workingpapers/VSBEcon21.pdf
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Paper provided by Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics in its series Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series with number 21.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:vil:papers:21

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Web page: http://www.villanova.edu/business/facultyareas/economics/
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Keywords: Growth; Aid; Dictator;

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  1. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
  2. Christopher Kilby & Axel Dreher, 2009. "The Impact of Aid on Growth Revisited: Do Donor Motives Matter?," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 5, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
  3. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, EconWPA.
  4. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Instruments, Randomization, and Learning about Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 424-55, June.
  5. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
  6. Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010. "Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
  7. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, 06.
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