OCA theory and EMU Eastern enlargement: An empirical application
AbstractThe accession of several Central and Eastern European Countries to Euroland is likely to be realised within the next years. Some studies aim at analysing the suitability of these Euro aspirants for currency union with EMU by evaluating the related macroeconomic costs. Still, they are prone to the Lucas critique since they do not consider endogeneity of the relevant criteria. We build on methodologies developed with regard to the theory of optimum currency areas in the context of present EMU and use a structural VAR approach to evaluate EMU suitability of the candidate countries. To correct for the widespread flaw of previous studies we use lagged time series to account for endogeneities. An evaluation of the changing country characteristics within the process of integration in Western Europe confirms the importance of this approach. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bank Research in its series Research Notes with number 8.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
OCA; EMU; shock analysis; Eastern enlargement;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
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- De Grauwe, Paul & Vanhaverbeke, Wim, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Erkel-Rousse, Hélène & Mélitz, Jacques, 1995. "New Empirical Evidence on the Costs of European Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nenad Stanisic, 2013. "Convergence between the business cycles of Central and Eastern European countries and the Euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 63-74, July.
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