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New Empirical Evidence on the Costs of European Monetary Union

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  • Erkel-Rousse, Hélène
  • Mélitz, Jacques

Abstract

In order to assess the costs of a European Monetary Union, we use a structural VAR approach based on the long-run identifying scheme pioneered by Blanchard and Quah and extended by others. We then apply the approach to as many EU members as data limitations permit: namely, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. By identifying a separate shock which would cause exchange rate jumps in the short run, we hope to assess the extent to which such jumps would produce short-run movements in prices as opposed to volumes in each country. Thereby, we hope to see how much sacrifice each EU member would suffer from the surrender of independent monetary policy. Similarly, we try to identify a separate shock to home absorption in order to see how much profit each EU member would have in preserving their fiscal policy independence inside of EMU. The asymmetry between the shocks hitting the country members of a monetary union remains an issue in the paper; but it is only one of several.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1169.

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Date of creation: May 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1169

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Related research

Keywords: European Monetary Union; Optimum Currency Areas; Structural VAR;

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Cited by:
  1. Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2008. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(8), pages 1-31.
  2. W.H. Buiter, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter? (With an Application to UK Membership in EMU)," CEP Discussion Papers dp0462, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 1997. "Degré de flexibilité des marchés du travail, ajustement à des chocs asymétriques et union monétaire européenne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 79-100.
  4. Franz Pauer, 1996. "Will Asymmetric Shocks Pose a Serious Problem in EMU?," Working Papers 23, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  5. Buiter, Willem H, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. G. Peersman, 2005. "The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks and the determination of the exchange rate," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/286, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. Boyer, Robert, 2001. "L'économiste face aux innovations qui font époque : les relations entre histoire et théorie," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0112, CEPREMAP.
  8. Helene Schuberth, 1998. "Room for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?," Working Papers 35, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Weimann, Marco, 2003. "OCA theory and EMU Eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Research Notes 8, Deutsche Bank Research.
  10. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
  11. Van Els, Peter & Peeters, Marga, 1999. "De baten van een gemeenschappelijke Europese munt
    [The benefits of a common European currency]
    ," MPRA Paper 28714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  13. Helene Schuberth & Gert Wehinger, 1998. "Costs of European Monetary Union: Evidence of monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness," ERSA conference papers ersa98p459, European Regional Science Association.
  14. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 2000. "Les zones monétaires optimales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 577-612, décembre.
  15. Boyer, Robert, 2001. "The Economist Confronted by Epochal Innovations: The Relationships between History and theory," UCAIS Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy, Working Paper Series qt4db8m5dg, UCAIS Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy, UC Berkeley.

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