Measuring option implied degree of distress in the US financial sector using the entropy principle
AbstractWe estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are evaluated with regard to their consistency and predictive power and their properties are compared to Credit Default Swap Spreads (CDS). Moreover, we also derive an indicator for the systemic risk in the US financial sector. We find that the PoDs are superior to CDS in identifying the high risk banks prior to the Lehman crisis. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 30/2012.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Entropy Principle; Risk Neutral Density; Probability of Default; Financial Stability Indicator; Credit Default Swaps;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-12-22 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2012-12-22 (Risk Management)
- NEP-UPT-2012-12-22 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jérôme Coffinet & Adrian Pop & Muriel Tiesset, 2010.
"Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics,"
- Coffinet, J. & Pop, A. & Tiesset, M., 2010. "Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics," Working papers 311, Banque de France.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Christian Capuano, 2008. "The option-iPoD. The Probability of Default Implied by Option Prices based on Entropy," IMF Working Papers 08/194, International Monetary Fund.
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