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Market power and merger simulation in retail banking

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  • Molnár, József

Abstract

This paper tests market power in the banking industry. Price-cost margins predicted by different oligopoly models are calculated using discrete-choice demand estimates of own-price and cross-price elasticities. These predicted price-cost margins are then compared with price-cost margins computed using observed interest rates and estimates of marginal costs. This paper This among the first to. apply this methodology on a detailed, bank-level dataset from the retail banking sector. It extends on previous papers and illustrates the advantages of structural modelling by simulating a counterfactual merger experiment with a number of mergers, each of which involves two major banks, and studying the unilateral effect of the mergers on interest rates. This provides more evidence that concentration measures (such as the Herfindahl index) could be very misleading indicators of market power.

Suggested Citation

  • Molnár, József, 2008. "Market power and merger simulation in retail banking," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2008, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2008_004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ho, Chun-Yu, 2012. "Market structure, welfare, and banking reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 291-313.
    2. Marrouch, Walid & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2012. "Bank pricing under oligopsony-oligopoly: Evidence from 103 developing countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demand; discrete choice; product differentiation; banking; market power; merger simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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