IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2015_010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Nuutilainen, Riikka

Abstract

​This paper focuses on monetary policy in China. A set of different specifications for the monetary policy reaction function are empirically evaluated using monthly data for 1999––2012. Variation is allowed both in the policy targets as well as in the monetary policy instrument itself. Overall, the performance of the estimated policy rules is surprisingly good. Chinese monetary policy displays countercyclical reactions to in‡ation and leaning-against-the-wind behaviour. The paper shows that there is a notable increase in the overall responsiveness of Chinese monetary policy over the course of the estimation period. The central bank interest rate is irresponsive to economic conditions during the earlier years of the sample but does respond in the later years. This finding supports the view that the monetary policy settings of the People's Bank of China have come to place more weight on price-based instruments. A time-varying estimation procedure suggests that the two monetary policy objectives are assigned to different instruments. The money supply instrument is utilised to control the price level and (after 2008) the interest rate instrument has been used to achieve the targeted output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2015. "Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2015_010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212820/1/bofit-dp2015-010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    3. Tuuli Koivu & Aaron Mehrotra & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2009. "An analysis of Chinese money and prices using a McCallum-type rule," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 219-235.
    4. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "What has driven Chinese monetary policy since 1990? Investigating the People's bank's policy rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 847-859, September.
    5. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, December.
    6. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    7. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 2012/118, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    10. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Japanese monetary policy, 1991-2001," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Win), pages 1-31.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2024. "Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2015. "Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Riikka Nuutilainen, 2015. "Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 461-486, August.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503181119 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503181119 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Korhonen, Iikka & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2017. "Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 366-378.
    7. Hutchison, Michael M. & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2013. "Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-202.
    8. Iikka Korhonen & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2016. "A monetary policy rule for Russia, or is it rules?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 28-45.
    9. Iikka Korhonen & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2016. "A monetary policy rule for Russia, or is it rules?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 28-45.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. M. Marzo, 2001. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Regimes: the Role of Nominal Rigidities," Working Papers 411, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. Gerson Nhapulo & João Nicolau, 2017. "Assessing Nonlinear Dynamics of Central Bank Reaction Function: The Case of Mozambique," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 28-51, March.
    13. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    14. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    15. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Simplicity versus optimality: The choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 245-279, January.
    16. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1265-1300, October.
    17. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Klingelhöfer, Jan & Sun, Rongrong, 2018. "China's regime-switching monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 32-40.
    20. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    21. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2575, CESifo.
    22. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    23. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules in the BRICS: How Important is Nonlinearity?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    24. Yanbin Chen & Zhen Huo, 2009. "A Conjecture of Chinese Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence from Survey Data, Markov Regime Switching, and Drifting Coefficients," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 111-153, May.
    25. Petreski, Marjan & Jovanovic, Branimir, 2012. "New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy in China," MPRA Paper 40497, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2015_010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.