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Survival Chances of Newly Founded Firms in Berlin: An Evaluation of Firm Registrations and Deregisterations from 1981-1990, Based on Data from Chamber of Commerce. (This paper is only in German!)

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  • Talat Mahmood
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    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to test the hypotheses of firm selection and industrial evolution derived from the theory of industrial economics, as well as to test the theoretical assumption of the organization ecology. The data used for the empirical research is based on the Chamber of Commerce’s commercial registration records for the period 1981-1990. First, the descriptive results are presented for firm registrations and deregistrations, and for entries and deletions in the commercial register. Second, the survival and exit rates of new firms for this time period are compiled with the method of the life table and then presented. Using the semi-parametric models, the influence of the determinants on the likelihood of survival is shown. The main results are: the survival rates of firms increases as firm size increases; small trading firms have a lower survival rates (a higher risk) as compared to the firms in the commercial register; industry heterogeneities play a significant role on the likelihood of survival; service firms have better survival chances than manufacturing firms. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Überlebenschancen neugegründeter Berliner Betriebe: Eine Auswertung der Gewerbean- und -abmeldungen der Industrie- und Handelskammerdaten für den Zeitraum 1981-1990) Gegenstand dieses Aufsatzes ist es, Forschungshypothesen zur Firmenselektion und zur industriellen Entwicklung aus der industrieökonomischen Theorie, sowie den theoretischen Ansatz der Organisationsökologie zu testen. Der empirischen Untersuchung liegt eine Stichprobe aus der Gewerbemeldedatei der Industrie- und Handelskammer für Berlin im Untersuchungszeitraum 1981-1990 zugrunde. Zuerst werden die deskriptiven Ergebnisse der Untersuchung von Gewerbean- und -abmeldungen, sowie Handelsregistereintragungen und Löschungen vorgestellt. Zweitens werden mit der Methode der Sterbetafelschätzung die Überlebenszeiten und Sterbequoten der im Untersuchungszeitraum neu angemeldeten bzw. eingetragenen Betriebe untersucht. Anschließend wird der Einfluß der Determinanten auf das Sterberisiko bzw. die Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit mit semi-parametrischen Modellen aufgezeigt. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Untersuchung sind: mit wachsender Betriebsgröße steigen die Überlebenschancen der Betriebe; kleingewerbliche Betriebe weisen niedrigere Überlebensraten (höheres Risiko) auf als die im Handelsregister eingetragenen Betriebe; Branchenunterschiede der Unternehmen haben einen signifikanten Einfluß auf die Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit; Dienstleistungsbetriebe besitzen bessere Überlebenschancen als Unternehmen im verarbeitenden Gewerbe.

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    File URL: http://skylla.wz-berlin.de/pdf/1996/iv96-19.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG) in its series CIG Working Papers with number FS IV 96-19.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:fsiv96-19

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    1. Wagner, Joachim, 1994. "The Post-entry Performance of New Small Firms in German Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 141-54, June.
    2. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
    3. Leonard W. Weiss, 1964. "The Survival Technique and the Extent of Suboptimal Capacity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 246.
    4. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
    5. Audretsch, David B. & Mata, Jose, 1995. "The post-entry performance of firms: Introduction," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 413-419, December.
    6. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
    7. Levinthal, D.A. & Fichman, M., 1991. "Honeymoons and the Liability of Adolescence : A New Perspective on Duration Dependence in Social Organizational Relationships," GSIA Working Papers 1991-34, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. Baldwin, John R. & Rafiquzzaman, Mohammed, 1995. "Selection versus evolutionary adaptation: Learning and post-entry performance," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 501-522, December.
    9. Bronwyn H. Hall, 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," NBER Working Papers 1965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Audretsch, David B, 1991. "New-Firm Survival and the Technological Regime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 441-50, August.
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