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Heavy tails and electricity prices

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  • Rafal Weron

Abstract

In the first years after the emergence of deregulated power markets it became apparent that for the valuation of electricity derivatives we cannot simply rely on models developed for financial or other commodity markets. However, before adequate models can be put forward the unique characteristics of electricity (spot) prices have to be thoroughly analyzed. In particular, the extreme volatility and price spikes which lead to heavy-tailed distributions of returns. In this paper we first analyze the stylized facts of electricity prices, then present two modeling approaches: jump-diffusion and regime-switching, which to some extent address the pertinent issues.

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File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_05_02.pdf
File Function: Original version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/05/02.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc0502

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Related research

Keywords: Heavy-tailed distribution; Electricity spot price; Seasonality; Volatility; Price spike;

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References

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  1. Anna Chernobai & Krzysztof Burnecki & Svetlozar Rachev & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Modeling catastrophe claims with left-truncated severity distributions (extended version)," HSC Research Reports HSC/05/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sandro Sapio, 2009. "Modelling the distribution of day-ahead electricity returns: a comparison," LEM Papers Series 2009/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  2. Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2007. "Heavy tails and electricity prices: Do time series models with non-Gaussian noise forecast better than their Gaussian counterparts?," MPRA Paper 2292, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2007.
  3. Palzer, Andreas & Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-160.
  4. Frestad, Dennis, 2008. "Common and unique factors influencing daily swap returns in the Nordic electricity market, 1997-2005," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1081-1097, May.
  5. Manuel Moreno & Pedro Jose Serrano & Winfried Stute, 2008. "Statistical Properties and Economic Implications of Jump-Diffusion Processes with Shot-Noise Effects," Business Economics Working Papers wb084912, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.

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