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Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output

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Author Info
Dobromil Serwa () (Warsaw School of Economics, National Bank of Poland)
Abstract

The paper employs a recently developed procedure, based on a bivariate Markov switching model, to analyze the asymmetric causality linkages between credit growth and output growth during banking crises. Using a sample of 103 banking crises, we find that neither credit nor output leads the other variable in calm and crisis periods, although there is evidence of instantaneous regime-interdependence between the banking and real sector during crises. The linear link between credit growth and output growth is also regime-dependent.

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File URL: http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/zes/wp/aewp05-08.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 27.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 25 Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:26

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Postal: 02-554 Warszawa, Al. Niepodległosci 164
Web page: http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/zes
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Related research
Keywords: banking crises; credit growth; output growth; Markov switching model; causality;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing

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