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Comparing the Bias and Misspecification in Arfima Models

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Author Info
Smith, Jeremy
Taylor, Nick
Yadav, Sanjay

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Abstract

A number of papers have looked at the bias in the fractional integration parameter, d using a variety of alternative estimation techniques. This paper supplements that literature by investigating the bias in both the short-term and long-term parameters for a range of ARFIMA models using a more comprehensive range of estimation techniques. The results suggest that all estimation procedures yield slightly biased estimates of the long-run parameter, and that these biases become larger with the introduction of short-term AR or MA parameters. The bias in the short-run parameters mirrors that in the long-run parameters. These biases often causes model selection criteria to select an incorrect ARMA specification, having filtered out the long-run parameter. Incorrect specification of the short-run parameters in the ARFIMA model can accentuate the bias in the long-run parameter.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 442.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:442

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  1. Luis A. Gil-alana, 2001. "Estimation of Fractionally ARIMA Models for the UK Unemployment," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 62, pages 07, Avril-Jui. [Downloadable!]
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Long Memory in US Real Output per Capita," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Souza, Leonardo Rocha & Smith, Jeremy & Souza, Reinaldo Castro de, 2003. "Convex Combinations of Long Memory Estimates from Different Sampling Rates," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 489, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Nelson And Plosser Revisited: Evidence From Fractional Arima Models," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-16, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Miguel Arranz & Francesc Marmol, 2001. "Out-of-sample forecast errors in misspecific perturbed long memory processes," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 423-436, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2003. "Temporal Aggregation and Bandwidth Selection in Estimating Long Memory," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 478, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2001. "Modelos De Memoria Larga Para Series Económicas Y Financieras," Documentos de Trabajo de Estadística y Econometría ds010101, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
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