I processi cumulativi nella crisi del debito degli anni 80: una lettura dai casi di Argentina, Brasile e Messico Cumulative processes in the 1980s debt crisis: an analysis from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico's case studies

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I processi cumulativi nella crisi del debito degli anni 80: una lettura dai casi di Argentina, Brasile e Messico Cumulative processes in the 1980s debt crisis: an analysis from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico's case studies

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Andrea de Panizza (Istat; previously at Italy's National Research Council)

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Andrea de Panizza

Abstract

This paper analyses the 1980s Latin American debt crisis in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico and, in particular, the influence of cumulative processes at work in its early and final stages. The paper is organised in three sections. The first examines the crisis<92> features in the three countries, and maps the key macroeconomic and behavioural relationships at its onset and resolution. The second reviews the IMF-WB standard macroeconomic adjustment model as formalised by Khan, Monthiel and Haque (1986), arguing that it cannot usefully be applied to a situation combining balance of payments and public finance disequilibria as experienced in the debt crisis. Therefore, an original three gap model is introduced that moreover considers the impact of cumulative processes. The econometric analysis provided in the third section allows to unravel the conundrum of causes, effects and responses to the crisis in each of the three countries, and to successfully test the hypotheses underlying the proposed model.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0309004.

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Length: 77 pages
Date of creation: 04 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0309004

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; to print on Any. Note: formatted A4 size; pages: 77 ; figures: included. This monography was published in 1997 as #6 in ISFSE WP series. It provides a description of the debt crisis in its complexities, including cumulative processes (an aspect now recognised also by other authors), and proposes an original and still unique treatment of cumulative processes within a macro-adjustment model. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS IN ITALIAN. Spanish speakers can read it easily...
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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Hahn, Frank H., 1977. "The monetary approach to the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-249, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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