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A Threshold Model of Real US GDP and the Problem of Constructing Confidence Intervals in TAR Models

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Abstract

We estimate real U.S. GDP growth as a threshold autoregressive process, and construct confidence intervals for the parameter estimates. However, there are various approaches that can be used in constructing the confidence intervals. Specifically, standard- t , bootstrap- t , and bootstrap-percentile confidence intervals are simulated for the slope coefficients and the estimated threshold. However, the results for the different methods have very different economic implications. We perform a Monte Carlo experiment to evaluate the various methods.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Siklos, W. Enders & B. Falk, 2006. "A Threshold Model of Real US GDP and the Problem of Constructing Confidence Intervals in TAR Models," Working Papers eg0052, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:wlu:wpaper:eg0052
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    Cited by:

    1. Donayre Luiggi & Eo Yunjong & Morley James, 2018. "Improving likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals for threshold parameters in finite samples," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-François BRUN, 2010. "Price Transmission in the Cocoa-Chocolate Chain," Working Papers 201003, CERDI.
    3. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-François BRUN, 2014. "Chocolate price fluctuations may cause depression: an analysis of price pass-through in the cocoa chain," Working Papers 201420, CERDI.
    4. Li, Jing, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-332.
    5. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-François Brun, 2014. "Chocolate price fluctuations may cause depression: an analysis of price pass-through in the cocoa chain," CERDI Working papers halshs-01074157, HAL.
    6. Shahbaba Babak, 2009. "Discovering Hidden Structures Using Mixture Models: Application to Nonlinear Time Series Processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, May.
    7. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-François Brun, 2011. "Price Transmission in the Cocoa-Chocolate Chain," CERDI Working papers halshs-00552997, HAL.
    8. Ahmad Yamin & Donayre Luiggi, 2016. "Outliers and persistence in threshold autoregressive processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 37-56, February.
    9. Li, Jing, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-332, April.
    10. Subervie, Julie, 2011. "Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2239-2246, September.
    11. Enders, Walter & Im, Kyung So & Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C., 2010. "IV threshold cointegration tests and the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1463-1472, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrap GDP; Threshold Autoregression; Bootstrap Confidence Intervals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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