A Threshold Model of Real US GDP and the Problem of Constructing Confidence Intervals in TAR Models
AbstractWe estimate real U.S. GDP growth as a threshold autoregressive process, and construct confidence intervals for the parameter estimates. However, there are various approaches that can be used in constructing the confidence intervals. Specifically, standard- t , bootstrap- t , and bootstrap-percentile confidence intervals are simulated for the slope coefficients and the estimated threshold. However, the results for the different methods have very different economic implications. We perform a Monte Carlo experiment to evaluate the various methods.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number eg0052.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision: 2006
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Bootstrap GDP; Threshold Autoregression; Bootstrap Confidence Intervals;
Other versions of this item:
- Enders Walter & Falk Barry L & Siklos Pierre, 2007. "A Threshold Model of Real U.S. GDP and the Problem of Constructing Confidence Intervals in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-28, September.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Subervie, Julie, 2011. "Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2239-2246, September.
- Li, Jing, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-332, April.
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