Modeling transition in Central Asia: the Case of Kazakhstan
AbstractThis paper presents a small macro-econometric model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. It uses a new approach to test the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when the characteristics of the regressors’ non-stationarity are not known with certainty. The simulations provide insights into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, and rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp1001.
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
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Simulation; Forecasting; Transition; Stabilization; Central Asian;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- P39 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2011-04-30 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-CWA-2011-04-30 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-04-30 (Transition Economics)
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