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Modeling transition in Central Asia: the Case of Kazakhstan

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Author Info

  • Gilles DUFRENOT

    ()

  • Adelya OSPANOVA
  • Alain SAND-ZANTMAN

Abstract

This paper presents a small macro-econometric model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. It uses a new approach to test the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when the characteristics of the regressors’ non-stationarity are not known with certainty. The simulations provide insights into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, and rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp1001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp1001.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2010-1001

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Keywords: Simulation; Forecasting; Transition; Stabilization; Central Asian;

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