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Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 emissions : near-term reductions and intensity-based targets

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  • Timilsina, Govinda R.

Abstract

This study analyzes CO2 emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 in order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at the level of 450 ppm (550 ppm including non CO2 greenhouse gases). It also determines CO2 intensity cuts that would be needed in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were achieved through intensity-based targets while assuming no effect on forecasted economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO2 emissions to reverse before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO2 trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO2 emissions would be 42 percent above the 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO2 emissions is reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, the 2030 global CO2 emissions would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining assumed economic growth, the global average CO2 intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4352.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4352

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Related research

Keywords: Climate Change; Transport and Environment; Environment and Energy Efficiency; Energy Production and Transportation; Energy and Environment;

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Cited by:
  1. Dorothee Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2011. "The Intra-country Distributional Impact of Policies to Fight Climate Change: A Survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 97-117.
  2. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2009. "Distributional impact of developed countries CC policies on Senegal : A macro-micro CGE application," Cahiers de recherche 09-11, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
  3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2008. "Intra-Country Distributional Impact of Policies to Fight Climate Change: A Survey," Working Papers ECARES 2008_038, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2008. "Distributional impact of global warming environmental policies: A survey," Cahiers de recherche 08-14, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.

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