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A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Illia Baranochnikov

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; Quantitative Finance Research Group)

  • Robert Ślepaczuk

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Department of Quantitative Finance; Quantitative Finance Research Group)

Abstract

The aim of this work is to build a profitable algorithmic investment strategy on various types of assets. The algorithm is built using recurrent neural networks (LSTM and GRU) as the primary source of signals to buy/sell financial instruments. LSTM and GRU architectures are compared in terms of obtaining the best results and beating the market. The algorithm is tested for four financial instruments (Bitcoin, Tesla, Brent Oil and Gold) on daily and hourly data frequencies. The out-of-sample period is from 1 January 2021 to 1 April 2022. A walk-forward process is responsible for training models and selecting the best model to forecast asset prices in the future. Ten model architectures with various hyperparameters are trained during each step of the walk-forward process. The model architecture with the highest Information Ratio (IR*) in the validation period is used for forecasting in the out-of-sample period. For each strategy, the performance metrics are calculated based on which the profitability of the algorithm is evaluated. At the end, a detailed sensitivity analysis with regards to the main hyperparameters is conducted. The results reveal that LSTM outperforms GRU in most of the cases and that investment strategy built based on LSTM/GRU architecture is able to beat the market only on 50% of tested cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Illia Baranochnikov & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy," Working Papers 2022-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2022-21
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/1910/0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krauss, Christopher & Do, Xuan Anh & Huck, Nicolas, 2017. "Deep neural networks, gradient-boosted trees, random forests: Statistical arbitrage on the S&P 500," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(2), pages 689-702.
    2. Tej Bahadur Shahi & Ashish Shrestha & Arjun Neupane & William Guo, 2020. "Stock Price Forecasting with Deep Learning: A Comparative Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Ryś Przemysław & Ślepaczuk Robert, 2018. "Machine Learning Methods in Algorithmic Trading Strategy Optimization – Design and Time Efficiency," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 5(52), pages 206-229, January.
    4. Christopher Krauss & Anh Do & Nicolas Huck, 2017. "Deep neural networks, gradient-boosted trees, random forests: Statistical arbitrage on the S&P 500," Post-Print hal-01768895, HAL.
    5. Ghosh, Pushpendu & Neufeld, Ariel & Sahoo, Jajati Keshari, 2022. "Forecasting directional movements of stock prices for intraday trading using LSTM and random forests," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    6. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 654-669.
    7. Pushpendu Ghosh & Ariel Neufeld & Jajati Keshari Sahoo, 2020. "Forecasting directional movements of stock prices for intraday trading using LSTM and random forests," Papers 2004.10178, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2023. "Do Large Datasets or Hybrid Integrated Models Outperform Simple Ones in Predicting Commodity Prices and Foreign Exchange Rates?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-25, June.
    2. Katarzyna Kryńska & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "Daily and intraday application of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies on Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 2022-25, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deep learning; recurrent neural networks; algorithm; trading strategy; LSTM; GRU; walk-forward process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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