Unprivatizing the Pension System: The Case of Poland
AbstractIn many countries the fiscal tension associated with the global financial crisis brings about the discussion about unprivatizing the social security system. This paper employs an OLG model to assess ex ante the effects of such changes to the pension reform in Poland from 1999 as implemented in 2011 and proposed in 2013. We simulate the behavior of the economy without the implemented/proposed changes and compare it to a status quo defined by the reform from 1999. We find that the changes implemented in 2011 and all of the proposed reform scenarios from 2013 are detrimental to welfare. The effects on capital and output are small and depend on the selected fiscal closure. Implied effective replacement rates are lower. These findings are robust to time inconsistency. The shortsightedness of the governments imposes welfare costs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw in its series Working Papers with number 2013-26.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
OLG; PAYG; pension system reform; time inconsistency;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2013-10-05 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-10-05 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-DEM-2013-10-05 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-10-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2013-10-05 (Transition Economics)
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