The paper offers an alternative approach to analyzing stock market time series data. The purpose is to develop descriptive, more intuitive, and closer to reality analogs of the behavior of US stock market prices, as indexed by the S&P500 stock price index covering the period October 2003 to October 2008. One analog developed is the “escalator principle” and the blind man. The approach is to treat prices as a random and independent variable and use extreme value theory to judge probabilistically whether prices and their attributes are from an initial universe or whether there has been a regime change. The attributes include the level, first difference, second difference and third difference of the ordered price series. Various graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually normal with either a constant or time-dependent variance (or measureable risk) and consequently does not handle well uncertainty (non-measureable risk) due to regime changes. The analogs show the investor how to determine when a regime change has likely occurred.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Other C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: