Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts: A New Perspective on Oil and the Macroeconomy
AbstractWe examine how future real GDP growth relates to changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices and to changes in unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices around the forecasts. Forecasts are conducted using a state-space oil market model, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend. Changes in unanticipated fluctuations and changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices sum to real oil price changes. We find that these two components have distinctly different relationships with future real GDP growth. Positive and negative changes in the unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices correlate with asymmetric responses of future real GDP growth. In comparison, changes in the forecasted long-term average are smaller in magnitude but are more influential on real GDP. Persistent upward revisions of forecasts in the 2000s had a substantial negative impact on real GDP growth, according to our estimates..
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Missouri in its series Working Papers with number 1012.
Length: 30 pgs.
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
oil price and the macroeconomy; oil market fundamental; oil price forecasts; Kalman filter;
Other versions of this item:
- Miller, J. Isaac & Ni, Shawn, 2011. "Long-Term Oil Price Forecasts: A New Perspective On Oil And The Macroeconomy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 396-415, November.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-10-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ENE-2010-10-23 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2010-10-23 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2010-10-23 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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15728, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 17 Dec 2012.
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- Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Liquidity and Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," MPRA Paper 48900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Claudio Morana, 2013.
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223, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
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