An empirical analysis of life jacket effectiveness in recreational boating

This paper presents the results of an analysis on Life Lacket (LJ) effectiveness in U.S. recreational boating between 2008 and 2011. We use the US Coast Guard's Boating Accident Report Database (BARD) to fit a Poisson regression of number of fatalities on many different factors interacting at the time of the accident. We find that LJ wear is one of the most influential determinant of the number of fatalities on a vessel, together with the number of vessels involved, the type and engine of the vessel. We estimate that the expected number of deceased per vessel would decrease by about 80% if the operator wears his LJ. The number of deceased is also estimated 1.86 times higher when the vessel is a canoe or a kayak, but 80% lower as one more vessel is involved, and 34% lower when the operator has more than 100 hours of experience. Interestingly, we find LJ effectiveness decrease significantly with the length of the boat and slightly with increases in water temperature; it increases slightly with the age of the operator. We simulate the impact of a LJ regulation that would impose all operators to wear their LJ, corresponding to a a minimum of 20% increase in wear rate (to about 40%). Between 2008 and 2011, we estimate that such a policy would have saved between 1,721 and 1,889 (out of 3047) boaters, i.e. 1,234 out of 2,185 drowning victims. A similar policy restricted to 16 to 30 feet length boats would have saved approximately 778 victims. Finally, an analysis of causes of death shows that a policy on LJ wear would reduce the share of drowning victims compared to other causes.