The Variance Gamma Scaled Self-Decomposable Process in Actuarial Modelling
AbstractA scaled self-decomposable stochastic process put forward by Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (2007) is used to model long term equity returns and options prices. This parsimonious model is compared to a number of other one-dimensional continuous time stochastic processes (models) that are commonly used in finance and the actuarial sciences. The comparisons are conducted along three dimensions: the models ability to fit monthly time series data on a number of different equity indices; the models ability to fit the tails of the times series and the models ability to calibrate to index option prices across strike price and maturities. The last criteria is becoming increasingly important given the popularity of capital gauranteed products that contain long term imbedded options that can be (at least partially) hedged by purchasing short term index options and rolling them over or purchasing longer term index options. Thus we test if the models can reproduce a typical implied volatility surface seen in the market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201030.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 29 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Variance gamma; regime switching lognormal; long term equity returns.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-10 (All new papers)
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