Information and option pricings
AbstractHow can one relate stock fluctuations and information-based human activities? We present a model of an incomplete market by adjoining the Black-Scholes exponential Brownian motion model for stock fluctuations with a hidden Markov process, which represents the state of information in the investors' community. The drift and volatility parameters take different values depending on the state of this hidden Markov process. Standard option pricing procedure under this model becomes problematic. Yet, with an additional economic assumption, we provide an explicit closed-form formula for the arbitrage-free price of the European call option. Our model can be discretized via a Skorohod embedding technique. We conclude with an example of a simulation of IBM stock, which shows that, not surprisingly, information does affect the market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.
Volume (Year): 1 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Su, Xiaonan & Wang, Wensheng & Hwang, Kyo-Shin, 2012. "Risk-minimizing option pricing under a Markov-modulated jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(10), pages 1777-1785.
- Liew, Chuin Ching & Siu, Tak Kuen, 2010. "A hidden Markov regime-switching model for option valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 374-384, December.
- Traian Pirvu & Huayue Zhang, 2013. "Investment and Consumption with Regime-Switching Discount Rates," Papers 1303.1248, arXiv.org.
- Robert J. Elliott & Leunglung Chan & Tak Kuen Siu, 2005. "Option pricing and Esscher transform under regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 423-432, October.
- Sakkas, E. & Le, H., 2009. "A Markov-modulated model for stocks paying discrete dividends," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 19-24, August.
- Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen & Badescu, Alexandru, 2011. "On pricing and hedging options in regime-switching models with feedback effect," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 694-713, May.
- Boyle, Phelim & Draviam, Thangaraj, 2007. "Pricing exotic options under regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 267-282, March.
- Robert Elliott & Tak Siu & Leunglung Chan, 2008. "A PDE approach for risk measures for derivatives with regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 55-74, January.
- Godfrey Charles-Cadogan & John A. Cole, 2013. "Bankruptcy Risk Induced by Career Concerns of Regulators," Papers 1312.7346, arXiv.org.
- Siu, Tak Kuen, 2005. "Fair valuation of participating policies with surrender options and regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 533-552, December.
- Tak Kuen Siu & Hailiang Yang Unim & John W Lau, 2007. "Option Pricing When the Regime-Switching Risk is Priced," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0713, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
- Robert Elliott & Leunglung Chan & Tak Siu, 2006. "Risk measures for derivatives with Markov-modulated pure jump processes," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 129-149, June.
- Siu, Tak Kuen, 2008. "A game theoretic approach to option valuation under Markovian regime-switching models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1146-1158, June.
- Traian A. Pirvu & Huayue Zhang, 2011. "On Investment-Consumption with Regime-Switching," Papers 1107.1895, arXiv.org.
- Qi-min, Zhang, 2011. "Convergence of numerical solutions for a class of stochastic age-dependent capital system with Markovian switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1195-1201, May.
- Nikita Ratanov, 2008. "Option Pricing Model Based on a Markov-modulated Diffusion with Jumps," Papers 0812.0761, arXiv.org.
- Jia-Wen Gu & Wai-Ki Ching & Tak-Kuen Siu & Harry Zheng, 2012. "On Pricing Basket Credit Default Swaps," Papers 1204.4025, arXiv.org.
- Elliott, Robert J. & Siu, Tak Kuen & Badescu, Alex, 2010. "On mean-variance portfolio selection under a hidden Markovian regime-switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 678-686, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.