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How Accurate is the Coordinate Price Pressure Index to Predict Mergers’ Coordinated Effects?

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Listed:
  • Ivaldi, Marc
  • Lagos, Vicente

Abstract

The Coordinate Price Pressure Index (CPPI) measures the incentives of two competitors to engage in a particular type of Parallel Accommodating Conduct (PAC). Specifically, it measures the incentives of a leader firm to initiate a unilateral percentage price increase, with the expectation that a follower firm will match it. Using a large set of simulated markets, we measure the accuracy of the index in terms of predicting the impact of a merger on firms’ incentives to engage in PAC. Results suggest that the CPPI only displays a fair performance when predicting an increase in firm’s incentives to engage in PAC, and only in mergers in which the diversion ratio between the target and the acquiring firm is low. However, the index displays a poor performance when predicting mergers with a significant anticompetitive effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivaldi, Marc & Lagos, Vicente, 2018. "How Accurate is the Coordinate Price Pressure Index to Predict Mergers’ Coordinated Effects?," TSE Working Papers 18-915, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:32620
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonas Björnerstedt & Frank Verboven, 2016. "Does Merger Simulation Work? Evidence from the Swedish Analgesics Market," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 125-164, July.
    2. Miller, Nathan H. & Remer, Marc & Ryan, Conor & Sheu, Gloria, 2017. "Upward pricing pressure as a predictor of merger price effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 216-247.
    3. Brito, Duarte & Ribeiro, Ricardo & Vasconcelos, Helder, 2018. "Quantifying the coordinated effects of partial horizontal acquisitions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 108-149.
    4. Lagos, Vicente, 2017. "Assessment of post-merger coordinated effects: Characterization by simulationsAuthor-Name: Ivaldi, Marc," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 267-305.
    5. Laura Grigolon & Frank Verboven, 2014. "Nested Logit or Random Coefficients Logit? A Comparison of Alternative Discrete Choice Models of Product Differentiation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 916-935, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coordinate Price Pressure Index; Parallel Accommodating Conduct; Merger Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K21 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Antitrust Law
    • L41 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices

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