The Macrodynamics of Household Debt
AbstractRecent research finds that corporate leverage affects macroeconomic dynamics and can contribute to financial fragility. We show that consumer debt is also important. We add consumer debt to a stock-flow consistent neo-Kaleckian growth model and explore the macrodynamic ramifications. Consumer debt influences effective demand, the profit rate, and economic growth. Unsurprisingly, laxer consumer credit constraints stimulate growth in the short run. However, the long-run effects may be growth reducing. Looser consumer credit can also make the system more vulnerable to changes in the state of confidence, the interest rate, and the saving propensity of rentiers. When consumer debt levels are high, a small increase in the interest rate or increase in the rentiers’s saving propensity, or reduction in the state of confidence can destabilize the macroeconomy. We further extend the model endogenizing the retention ratio. We find that the model becomes structurally unstable. This allows a simple characterization of economic crisis: a downswing in the state of confidence destabilize the macroeconomy. We also observe that higher interest rates and more prudent behavior of rentiers can be destabilizing.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Trinity College, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1010.
Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 300 Summit Street, Hartford, CT 06106-3100
Phone: (860) 297 - 2485
Web page: http://www.trincoll.edu/Academics/MajorsAndMinors/Economics/Pages/default.aspx
More information through EDIRC
Corporate debt; Consumer debt; Dynamics; Instability;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B59 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Other
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Setterfield).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.