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Future Waste Generation - Forecasts Based on a Macroeconomic Model


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  • Annegrete Bruvoll
  • Karin Ibenholt

    (Statistics Norway)


Generation of solid waste is closely associated with the use of tangible factor inputs and production levels in the economy. In this paper, we present projections of waste generated in the Norwegian manufacturing industry based on the development in these factors as simulated by a computable general equilibrium model. Over the simulation period, material input becomes relatively cheaper than labour and energy, thereby making it profitable to substitute materials for other factor inputs. This substitution effect is a general equilibrium effect mainly due to technological change. It dominates the direct material saving impact of technological progress in most production sectors. Thus, generated solid waste rises over the simulation period, both in terms of unit produced and per capita. The analysis predicts an increase in generated waste over the period from 1993 to 2010 in the range of 45 - 110 per cent, depending on the type of waste.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 175.

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Date of creation: Jun 1996
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:175

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Keywords: Solid waste; waste modelling; Norway.;

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Cited by:
  1. Sverre Grepperud, 1997. "Soil Depletion Choices under Production and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 186, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  2. Annegrete Bruvoll & Karin Ibenholt, 1998. "Green Throughput Taxation: Environmental and Economic Consequences," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(4), pages 387-401, December.
  3. Di Vita, Giuseppe, 1997. "Macroeconomic effects of the recycling of waste derived from imported non-renewable raw materials," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 179-186, December.
  4. Sjöström, Magnus & Östblom, Göran, 2009. "Future Waste Scenarios for Sweden based on a CGE-model," Working Paper 109, National Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Knut H. Alfsen & Mads Greaker, 2006. "From natural resources and environmental accounting to construction of indicators for sustainable development," Discussion Papers 478, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  6. Karin Ibenholt, 2003. "Material Accounting in a Macroeconomic Framework: Forecast of Waste Generated in Manufacturing Industries in Norway," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(2), pages 227-248, October.


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