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The response of long-term yields to negative interest rates: evidence from Switzerland

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  • Dr. Christian Grisse
  • Dr. Silvio Schumacher

Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of changes in short-term interest rates to longer-term government bond yields when interest rates are at very low levels or negative. We focus on Switzerland, where short-term interest rates have been at zero since late 2008 and negative since the beginning of 2015. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure implies that as nominal interest rates approach their lower bound, the effect of short-term rates on longer-term yields should decline, and positive short rate changes should have larger absolute effects than negative short rate changes. Contrary to studies of other countries, we find no evidence for a decline in the effect of short rate changes for the low-interest rate period using Swiss data. However, we do find evidence for the predicted asymmetric effect for positive and negative short rate changes during the period when short-term rates are close to zero. This asymmetry normalized again after the introduction of negative interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Christian Grisse & Dr. Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "The response of long-term yields to negative interest rates: evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-10, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2017-10
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2017/working_paper_2017_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Kettemann, Andreas & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Portfolio balance effects of the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchase program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 132-149.
    3. Jens H E Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2019. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 249-272.
    4. Jens H. E. Christensen & Signe Krogstrup, 2022. "A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 1-39, December.
    5. Grisse, Christian, 2015. "The zero lower bound and movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 66-69.
    6. Christian Grisse & Signe Krogstrup & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "Lower-Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 165-202, September.
    7. Morten Linnemann Bech & Aytek Malkhozov, 2016. "How have central banks implemented negative policy rates?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    8. Dr. Basil Guggenheim & Prof. Dr. Sébastien P. Kraenzlin & Dr. Silvio Schumacher, 2011. "Exploring an uncharted market: Evidence on the unsecured Swiss franc money market," Working Papers 2011-05, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2006. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure when interest rates are close to zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1409-1424, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Pierre Danthine, 2017. "The Interest Rate Unbound?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(2), pages 129-148, June.
    2. Dr. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Dr. Basil Guggenheim & Dr. Matthias Jüttner, 2018. "What do Swiss franc Libor futures really tell us?," Working Papers 2018-06, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Vesna Martin, 2018. "The Exchange Rate Commitment As Additional Instrument Of Monetary Policy In Czech Republic, Switzerland And Israel," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, issue 31, pages 41-57, December.
    4. Aleksander Berentsen & Hugo van Buggenum & Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "On the negatives of negative interest rates and the positives of exemption thresholds," ECON - Working Papers 372, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63, december.
    6. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & John Kandrac, 2018. "Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2018/131, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; negative interest rates; zero lower bound; yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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