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Variabile Selection in Forecasting Models for Corporate Bankruptcy

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Amendola
  • Marialuisa Restaino

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno)

  • Luca Sensini

    (Dipartimento di Studi e Ricerche Aziendali (Management & Information Technology), Università degli Studi di Salerno)

Abstract

In this paper we develop statistical models for bankruptcy prediction of Italian firms in the limited liability sector, using annual balance sheet information. Several issues involved in default risk analysis are investigated, such as the structure of the data-base, the sampling procedure and the influence of predictors. In particular we focus on the variable selection problem, comparing innovative techniques based on shrinkage with traditional stepwise methods. The predictive performance of the proposed default risk model has been evaluated by means of different accuracy measures. The results of the analysis, carried out on a data-set of financial ratios expressly created from a sample of industrial firms annual reports, give evidence in favor of the proposed model over traditional ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Amendola & Marialuisa Restaino & Luca Sensini, 2010. "Variabile Selection in Forecasting Models for Corporate Bankruptcy," Working Papers 3_216, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
    • Handle: RePEc:sep:wpaper:3_216
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
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    4. Wolfgang Härdle & Yuh-Jye Lee & Dorothea Schäfer & Yi-Ren Yeh, 2009. "Variable selection and oversampling in the use of smooth support vector machines for predicting the default risk of companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 512-534.
    5. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    6. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Default Risk; Variable Selection; Shrinkage; Lasso.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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