IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbiwp/0800.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Financing of Local Government in the People’s Republic of China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhuo

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • He, Zhiguo

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Liu, Chun

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s four-trillion-yuan stimulus package fueled by bank loans in 2009 has led to the rapid growth of shadow banking activities in the PRC after 2012. The local governments in the PRC financed the stimulus plan mainly through bank loans in 2009, and resorted to non-bank debt financing after 2012 given the mounting rollover pressure from bank debt coming due, a manifestation of the stimulus loan-hangover effect. Cross-sectionally, provinces with abnormally greater bank loan growth in 2009 experienced more Municipal Corporate Bonds issuance during 2012-2015, as well as more shadow banking activities including entrusted loans and wealth management products. We highlight the market forces behind the regulation changes on local government debt post 2012, together with the expedited reform on interest rate liberalization during that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2018. "The Financing of Local Government in the People’s Republic of China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," ADBI Working Papers 800, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0800
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/396826/adbi-wp800.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "Public Debt and Private Firm Funding: Evidence from Chinese Cities," IHEID Working Papers 10-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Aug 2016.
    2. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    3. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Zhiguo He, 2014. "A Theory of Debt Maturity: The Long and Short of Debt Overhang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 719-762, April.
    5. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    6. Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang & Mr. Steven A Barnett, 2014. "Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China," IMF Working Papers 2014/004, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Yongheng Deng & Randall Morck & Jing Wu & Bernard Yeung, 2015. "China’s Pseudo-monetary Policy," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 55-93.
    8. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2016. "What we learn from China's rising shadow banking: exploring the nexus of monetary tightening and banks' role in entrusted lending," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Kinda Hachem & Zheng Song, 2021. "Liquidity Rules and Credit Booms," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(10), pages 2721-2765.
    10. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    11. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Michael Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion," NBER Working Papers 22801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 709-737.
    13. Kroeber, Arthur R., 2016. "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190239039, Decembrie.
    14. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xian Gu & Iftekhar Hasan & Haitian Lu, 2019. "Corporate Misconduct and the Cost of Private Debt: Evidence from China," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 443-463, September.
    2. Yang, Liu & van Wijnbergen, S. & Qi, Xiaotong & Yi, Yuhuan, 2019. "Chinese shadow banking, financial regulation and effectiveness of monetary policy," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Wei Kong & Wenxiu Hu & Kaicheng Liao & Xiaoqiang Ma, 2021. "Local Financing Platform Loan and Performance of City Commercial Banks: Evidence from City Commercial Banks in China," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 238(3), pages 81-99, September.
    4. Huiyi Zhang & Richard Skolnik & Yue Han & Jinpei Wu, 2020. "The Impacts of China's Shadow Banking Credit Creation on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 33-46, October.
    5. Wu, Meng-Wen & Xu, Li & Shen, Chung-hua & Zhang, Ke-Kun, 2021. "Overconfident CEOs and shadow banking in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Yang Feng & Yang Wang, 2021. "The Impact of Deindustrialization on Economic Growth——Evidence from China," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Yi Ding & Wei Xiong & Jinfan Zhang, 2020. "Issuance Overpricing of China’s Corporate Debt Securities," NBER Working Papers 26815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    2. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    3. Jingzhu Chen & Yuemei Ji, 2022. "Is Finance Good for Growth? New Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 9882, CESifo.
    4. Zhu, Xiaodong, 2021. "The varying shadow of China's banking system," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 135-146.
    5. Guonan Ma & Jinzhao Chen, 2019. "The Role of Internally Financed Capex in Rising Chinese Corporate Debts," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 413-442, September.
    6. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China’s financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Yi Huang & Ugo Panizza & Richard Portes, 2018. "Corporate Foreign Bond Issuance and Interfirm Loans in China," NBER Working Papers 24513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Wang, He & Yao, Yang & Zhou, Yue, 2022. "Markets price politicians: Evidence from China’s municipal bond markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Zhang, Min & Zhang, Yahong, 2022. "Monetary stimulus policy in China: The bank credit channel," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China's financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Wang, Yabin & Wu, Sharon Xiaohui, 2023. "Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    15. Gao, Haoyu & Ru, Hong & Tang, Dragon Yongjun, 2021. "Subnational debt of China: The politics-finance nexus," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 881-895.
    16. Mo, Jiawei, 2018. "Land financing and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese counties," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 218-239.
    17. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Cheng, Yudan & Jia, Shanghui & Meng, Huan, 2022. "Fiscal policy choices of local governments in China: Land finance or local government debt?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 294-308.
    19. Yunyang Ji & Xiaoxin Guo & Shihu Zhong & Lina Wu, 2020. "Land Financialization, Uncoordinated Development of Population Urbanization and Land Urbanization, and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, November.
    20. Zixing Wang & Meirong Zhang, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Associated with Land Finance in China: A Perspective Based on the Urban–Rural Income Gap," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, September.
    21. Walker, Thomas & Zhang, Xueying & Zhang, Aoran & Wang, Yulin, 2021. "Fact or fiction: Implicit government guarantees in China’s corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    local government financing vehicles; municipal corporate bonds; shadow banking in china;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0800. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ADB Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/adbinjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.