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Free Trade between the EU and Russia - Sectoral Effects and Impacts on Northwest Russia

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Author Info
Ville Kaitila

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Abstract

ABSTRACT : We analyse the implications of free trade between the EU25 and Russia using GTAP, a computable general equilibrium model. We review the sectoral effects by countries and make a tentative assessment of the impact on the regions in Northwest Russia. Free trade on its own would have a negative terms-of-trade effect in Russia and cause a small decline in welfare. If coupled with an increase in productivity, welfare would increase. This emphasises the importance of reforms in the Russian economy. The quantity of production in Russia in ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, machine building and metal working, and wood and paper are the principal declining sectors with free trade. Production in capital goods, fuel industry, and services increases. Thus there are some symptoms of Dutch disease. Due to its production structure the northwest would seem to benefit slightly less than Russia on average in terms of the volume of gross regional product. In this respect there are differences between the regions of northwest Russia.

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Paper provided by The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy in its series Discussion Papers with number 1087.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:1087

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Related research
Keywords: EU; Russia; free trade; integration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 307-323, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David, 2006. "Regional impacts of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4015, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Philippe Aghion & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2004. "Entry and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Microlevel Panel Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 265-276, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Ron van Rooden, 2003. "Institutions Matter in Transition, But So Do Policies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 2-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia," Discussion Papers 969, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jasminka Sohinger, 2005. "Growth and Convergence in European Transition Economies : The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(2), pages 73-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Laura Alfaro & Areendam Chanda & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Selin Sayek, 2006. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Exploring the Effects of Financial Markets on Linkages," NBER Working Papers 12522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jonathan E. Haskel & Sonia C. Pereira & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2002. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Boost the Productivity of Domestic Firms?," NBER Working Papers 8724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2001. "A Note on Labour Productivity and Foreign Inward Direct Investment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 229-32, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kamal Saggi, 2002. "Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 191-235, September.
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  11. Joze Mencinger, 2003. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Always Enhance Economic Growth?," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 491-508, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Görg, Holger & Greenaway, David, 2002. "Much Ado About Nothing? Do Domestic Firms Really Benefit from Foreign Investment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Aghion, Philippe & Blundell, Richard William & Griffith, Rachel & Howitt, Peter & Prantl, Susanne, 2005. "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sarianna M. Lundan, 2007. "The Home Country Effects of Internationalisation," Discussion Papers 1100, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Petri Böckerman & Edvard Johansson & Satu Helakorpi & Antti Uutela, 2007. "Economic Inequality and Health: Looking Beyond Aggregate Indicators," Discussion Papers 1104, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Antti Lönnqvist, 2007. "Intellectual Capital and Productivity: Identification and the Measurement of the Relationship at Company-level," Discussion Papers 1108, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paavo Suni, 2007. "Oil Prices and the Russian Economy. Some Simulation Studies with NiGEM," Discussion Papers 1088, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
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