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Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia

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Author Info

  • Sulamaa, Pekka
  • Widgrén, Mika

Abstract

This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia’s terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy in its series Discussion Papers with number 969.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:969

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Keywords: EU; Russia; free trade; integration;

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References

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  1. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 307-323, December.
  2. André Sapir, 2000. "Trade Regionalism in Europe: Towards an Integrated Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 151-162, 03.
  3. Jesper Jensen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2007. "The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 482-506, 08.
  4. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  5. Thomas W. Hertel & Padma Swaminathan, 1996. "Introducing Monopolistic Competition into the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 309, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  6. Huff, Karen & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "Decomposing Welfare Changes in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 308, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  7. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
  8. Howe, Howard, 1975. "Development of the extended linear expenditure system from simple saving assumptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 305-310, July.
  9. Risto Vaittinen, 2000. "Eastern Enlargement of the European Union - Transition in applicant countries and evaluation of the economic prospects with a dynamic CGE-model," Research Reports 64, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  10. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  11. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-48, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Janne Niemi & Juha Honkatukia & Ville Kaitila & Markku Kotilainen, 2012. "Global trade and climate policy scenarios ? Impact on Finland," Working Papers 37, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  2. Kaitila, Ville, 2007. "Free Trade between the EU and Russia - Sectoral Effects and Impacts on Northwest Russia," Discussion Papers 1087, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  3. Petri Böckerman & Edvard Johansson & Ritva Prättälä & Antti Uutela, 2005. "Alcohol mortality, drinking behaviour, and business cycles: are slumps really dry seasons?," HEW 0506002, EconWPA.

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