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Sri Lanka – the wonder of Asia: analyzing monthly tourist arrivals in the post-war era

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  • Nyoni, Thabani

Abstract

Using the monthly time series data, ranging over the period June 2009 to December 2018, the study applied the generalized Box-Jenkins SARIMA approach in an attempt to model and forecast international tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.The ADF tests indicate that the tourism series is I (1). The study identified the minimum MAPE value and subsequently presented the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model as the optimal model to forecast tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka. Analysis of the residuals of the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model indicate that the selected model is stable and acceptable for forecasting tourism demand in Sri Lanka. The forecasted international tourist arrivals over the period January 2019 to December 2020 show a generally upward trend.In order to accommodate the forecasted growing numbers of international tourists, there is need for the construction of more infrastructure facilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Sri Lanka – the wonder of Asia: analyzing monthly tourist arrivals in the post-war era," MPRA Paper 96790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96790
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
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    11. Andreja Pufnik & Davor Kunovac, 2006. "Short-Term Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia with Seasonal ARIMA Processes," Working Papers 16, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    12. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. István Egresi & Supun Lahiru Prakash & Buddhika Maduraperruma & Amila Withanage & Aruna Weerasingha & Ştefan Dezsi & Bianca Sorina Răcăşan, 2021. "What Affects Support for Wetland Tourism? A Case Study from Sri Lanka," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. ""Incredible India"-an empirical confrimation from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique," MPRA Paper 96909, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; international tourism; SARIMA; Sri Lanka; tourism; tourist arrivals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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