IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/69827.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the relative importance of monetary transmission channels in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Turhan, Ibrahim M.
  • Gumus, Nihat

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to provide additional evidence on the operation and relative importance of monetary transmission channels in Turkey. The results of the VAR analysis conducted using monthly data between January 2004 and November 2013 suggest that the traditional channels of interest rates, exchange rates, and credit do work in Turkish economy. However, the most striking finding of the study is the relative importance of exchange rate channel in the transmission of monetary policy decision into real economy. Variance decomposition analysis shows that the explained variance by real effective exchange rates is higher for all variables as compared to the variance explained by interest rates. However, interest rates seem to be still a useful tool to manage monetary policy given its role in controlling the changes in exchange rates. The granger causality analysis points into the fact that while interest rates have a role in leading the volatility of exchange rates, exchange rates have an impact on foreign debt holdings of banks and credit growth. On the other hand, foreign debt positions of banks and other sector firms together with credit growth granger causes industrial production. The study has some remarkable ramifications in terms of monetary policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Turhan, Ibrahim M. & Gumus, Nihat, 2014. "On the relative importance of monetary transmission channels in Turkey," MPRA Paper 69827, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 May 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69827/1/MPRA_paper_69827.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2013. "Heterogeneous transmission mechanism: monetary policy and financial fragility in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1527, European Central Bank.
    2. By James Morsink & Tamim Bayoumi, 2001. "A Peek Inside the Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-2.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    4. Monal Abdel-Baki, 2010. "The Effects of Bank Reforms on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Egypt," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 22(4), pages 526-539.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    7. Erdem Basci & Özgür Özel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: new developments," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 475-499, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Kenc, Turalay & Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Yildirim, Onur, 2011. "The experience with macro-prudential policies of the central bank of the republic of Turkey in response to the global financial crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5834, The World Bank.
    9. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caroline Cabral Machado, 2013. "Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 469-492, August.
    10. Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2007. "Does the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Transmission Work in Turkey?," IMF Working Papers 2007/272, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caroline Cabral Machado, 2013. "Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 469-492, August.
    12. Turhan, Ibrahim M., 2008. "Why did it work this time: a comparative analysis of transformation of Turkish economy after 2002," MPRA Paper 31158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ms. Sanchita Mukherjee & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/229, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Shelagh Heffernan & Elena Kalotychou, 2010. "How do UK Banks React to Changing Central Bank Rates?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 99-130, June.
    15. Stephen J. Perez, 1998. "Causal ordering and 'The bank lending channel'," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 613-626.
    16. Lumengo BONGA-BONGA, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Long Term Interest Rate in South Africa," EcoMod2009 21500016, EcoMod.
    17. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies: what is new?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Yang Fan & Teng Jianzhou, 2011. "Studying on the monetary transmission mechanism in China in the presence of structural changes," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 334-357, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Hamid R Davoodi & S. V. S. Dixit & Gabor Pinter, 2013. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community: An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2013/039, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Peixoto, Gabriel Barros Tavares, 2014. "Risk-taking channel, bank lending channel and the “paradox of credibility”," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 82-94.
    3. James L Butkiewicz & Zeliha Ozdogan, 2014. "Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 66-83, January.
    4. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2018. "The changing transmission mechanism of US monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 959-987, May.
    5. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Vitor R. C. Britto, 2017. "Interest rate and credit channel for households and firms: Evidence from a large emerging economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 586-604.
    6. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:3:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tavares, Debora Pereira & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2013. "Canal de Transmissão da Política Monetária Por Meio dos Seguros Contratados Pelo Setor Bancário," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(3), September.
    8. Ibrahim L. Awad, 2011. "The Impact of Recent Innovations in Monetary Policy on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 186-209.
    9. Noor Ahmed & Hastam Shah & Asif Idrees Agha & Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 09, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    10. Shu Wu & Shigeru Iwata, 2004. "Estimating Monetary Policy Effects When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 478, Econometric Society.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Latvian output and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 467-471.
    13. Malik Qasim KHASAWNEH, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary policy on Consumption and Investment in Jordan during (1989-2013)," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 155-164, September.
    14. Zhandos Ybrayev, 2017. "The Prospect Of Inflation Targeting In Kazakhstan," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(1), pages 33-48.
    15. Žukauskas, Vytautas & Hülsmann, Jörg Guido, 2019. "Financial asset valuations: The total demand approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 123-131.
    16. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Policies and Stock Market Performance on the Estonian Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(2), pages 109-116.
    17. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    18. Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka, 2012. "The bank lending channel in Turkey: has it changed after the low-inflation regime?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1237-1242, September.
    19. Gabriel Caldas Montes & José Américo Pereira Antunes & Alexei Ferreira Araújo, 2021. "Effects of monetary policy and credibility on financial intermediation: evidence from the Brazilian banking sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1191-1219, March.
    20. Felix S. Nyumuah, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism of Developing Economies: Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 72-83, April.
    21. Taha Bahadir Sarac & OkYAY Ucan, 2013. "The Interest Rate Channel in Turkey: An Investigation with Kalman Filter Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 874-884.
    22. Maria Caporale, Guglielmo & M. Soliman, Alaa, 2009. "The Asymmetric Effects of a Common Monetary Policy in Europe," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 455-475.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary transmission mechanism; monetary policy; interest rate channel; exchange rate channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69827. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.