IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/65233.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of Arab uprising on Portfolio diversification benefits at different investment horizons for the Turkish investors in relation to the regional stock markets: Multivariate GARCH-DCC and Wavelet coherence approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Buriev, Abdul Aziz
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

The current political changes in the Arab countries have raised concerns about the behaviour of stock markets in the region. It brings an expectation of distortions in the behaviour of the regional financial markets. This study aims at analysing the dynamic relationship between Middle Eastern and North African equity markets exposed to the Arab Spring, namely Turkey, Egypt, Oman, and Lebanon, using Multivariate GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Coherence techniques on weekly data spanning from 2005 to 2015. We employ Multivariate GARCH-DCC to find out the time-varying volatilities and correlations between the markets, and Wavelet Coherence based on Continuous Wavelet Transform followed by the multiscale variance, covariance, and correlations based on Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform are used for multi-resolution analysis to see the pattern of interactions between the stock markets across the time-scales: low, medium, and high. The findings tend to suggest that the correlations between the stock markets are quite low all over the period: on average, about 4% until the Global Financial Crisis and 10% afterwards. In general, the volatilities are relatively stable, except for the global financial turmoil period. In particular, equity markets of Lebanon and Egypt display a slightly higher volatility during the Arab Spring. It means that the Turkish investors who have allocated their investments in major trading partners like Egypt may not experience great diversification benefits for almost all investment horizons related to higher trade intensity but moderate benefits arise for Lebanon up to the investment horizons of 32-64 days and longer. However, portfolio diversification benefits are greater if Turkish investors invest in the Oman stock index except during long investment horizons. As for the long run, stock holding periods exceeding 32-64 days have minimal benefits for portfolio diversification. As an implication, Turkish investors should carry out the reassessment of their stock exposures and investment horizons more frequently.

Suggested Citation

  • Buriev, Abdul Aziz & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Impact of Arab uprising on Portfolio diversification benefits at different investment horizons for the Turkish investors in relation to the regional stock markets: Multivariate GARCH-DCC and Wavelet c," MPRA Paper 65233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65233
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65233/1/MPRA_paper_65233.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Masih, Rumi & Masih, Mansur & Alhabshi, Syed Othman, 2014. "Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 553-571.
    2. Buerhan Saiti & Obiyathulla I. Bacha & Mansur Masih, 2014. "The diversification benefits from Islamic investment during the financial turmoil: The case for the US-based equity investors," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 14(4), pages 196-211, December.
    3. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Wang, Jun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2015. "Why is no financial crisis a dress rehearsal for the next? Exploring contagious heterogeneities across major Asian stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 241-259.
    5. Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & McAleer, Michael, 2006. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations in WTI oil forward and futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 114-132, June.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    7. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    8. Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Differentiating intraday seasonalities through wavelet multi-scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(3), pages 543-556.
    9. You, Leyuan & Daigler, Robert T., 2010. "Is international diversification really beneficial?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 163-173, January.
    10. Abou-Zaid, Ahmed S., 2011. "Volatility Spillover Effects in Emerging MENA Stock Markets," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-21, March.
    11. Syed Faiq Najeeb & Obiyathulla Bacha & Mansur Masih, 2015. "Does Heterogeneity in Investment Horizons Affect Portfolio Diversification? Some Insights Using M-GARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 188-208, January.
    12. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma, 2014. "Co-movements of GCC emerging stock markets: New evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 421-431.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rahim, Adam Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Portfolio diversification benefits of Islamic investors with their major trading partners: Evidence from Malaysia based on MGARCH-DCC and wavelet approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 425-438.
    2. Rahim, Adam Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Portfolio Diversification Benefits of Islamic Stocks and Malaysia’s Major Trading Partners:MGARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation Approaches," MPRA Paper 58903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rahim, Adam Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Effects of Political Turmoil (Arab Spring) on Portfolio Diversification Benefits: Perspectives of the Moroccan Islamic Stock investors," MPRA Paper 58832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan & Rahman, Maya Puspa & Saiti, Buerhan & Ghani, Gairuzazmi Bin Mat, 2019. "Does the Malaysian Sovereign sukuk market offer portfolio diversification opportunities for global fixed-income investors? Evidence from wavelet coherence and multivariate-GARCH analyses," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 675-687.
    5. Ali, Hakim & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Evidence of cross-country portfolio diversification benefits: The case of Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 72180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Ali, Sajid & Ameer, Saba, 2016. "Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 8-33.
    7. Samia Nasreen & Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Syed Ale Raza Shah, 2020. "A Wavelet-Based Analysis of the Co-Movement between Sukuk Bonds and Shariah Stock Indices in the GCC Region: Implications for Risk Diversification," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Ángeles Cebrián-Hernández & Enrique Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2021. "Modeling of the Bitcoin Volatility through Key Financial Environment Variables: An Application of Conditional Correlation MGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Asghar, Nadia & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Do Islamic indices provide diversification to bitcoin? A time-varying copulas and value at risk application," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Al Shugaa, Ameen & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Uncertainty and Volatility in MENA Stock Markets During the Arab Spring," MPRA Paper 58867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kaijian He & Kin Keung Lai & Guocheng Xiang, 2012. "Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-26, April.
    12. Cikiryel, Burak & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The Impact of Brexit on Islamic Stock Markets Employing MGARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 95681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Md Hakim Ali & Md Akther Uddin & Md. Atiqur Rahman Khan & Blake Goud, 2021. "Faith‐based versus value‐based finance: Is there any portfolio diversification benefit between responsible and Islamic finance?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5570-5583, October.
    14. Boubaker, Heni & Raza, Syed Ali, 2016. "On the dynamic dependence and asymmetric co-movement between the US and Central and Eastern European transition markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 459(C), pages 9-23.
    15. Eman F. Attia & Sharihan Mohamed Aly & Ahmed said ElRawas & Ebtehal Orabi Awad, 2023. "Portfolio diversification benefits before and during the times of COVID-19: evidence from USA," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    16. Delle Foglie, Andrea & Panetta, Ida Claudia, 2020. "Islamic stock market versus conventional: Are islamic investing a ‘Safe Haven’ for investors? A systematic literature review," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    18. Nakatani, Tomoaki & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2008. "Positivity constraints on the conditional variances in the family of conditional correlation GARCH models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 88-95, June.
    19. Abdelkader Derbali & Slaheddine Hallara & Aida Sy, 2016. "Athen's game of chicken or the conditional dependence between the Greek banks," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26.
    20. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab uprisings; portfolio diversification; MGARCH-DCC; Wavelet Coherence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65233. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.