IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/54253.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Magyar szuverén fix kamatozású forintkötvények hozamdekompozíciója
[Decomposition of the five-year Hungarian sovereign fixed income forint yields]

Author

Listed:
  • Monostori, Zoltan

Abstract

Tanulmányomban bemutatom azokat a tényezőket, melyek befolyásolják a magyar államkötvények árfolyamait. Arra a kérdésre keresem a választ, hogy a válság során mely felárak mozgatták a hosszú lejáratú állampapírok hozamait. Egy Magyarországhoz hasonló, kis, nyitott, nettó hitelezett gazdaságban a hozamokat a kockázatmentes hozam, a várható devizaárfolyam-változás, és a befektetők kockázataiért elvárt felár határozzák meg. A felárat alapvetően négy fő kockázattípus befolyásolja: hitelkockázat, likviditási kockázat, devizaárfolyam-kockázat és kamatkockázat. Míg a hitel- és a likviditási kockázati prémium becslésére elfogadható proxykat találok (credit default swap szpredek és kamatswapszpredek), a másik két tényező okozta felárat, valamint a várt devizaárfolyam-elmozdulás hatását együttesen, maradékelven vizsgálom. A válság első hullámában a hozamok növekedéséhez elsősorban a hitelkockázati felár és a likviditási felár járult hozzá, míg 2011 nyarától egy összeurópai összeomlás valamint egy csupán magyar nemfizetés vélt esélye okozza a prémium nagy részét, miközben a likviditási felár növekedése korlátozott marad.

Suggested Citation

  • Monostori, Zoltan, 2012. "Magyar szuverén fix kamatozású forintkötvények hozamdekompozíciója [Decomposition of the five-year Hungarian sovereign fixed income forint yields]," MPRA Paper 54253, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54253/1/462-475-monostori.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    2. Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Full Dollarization; The Pros and Cons," IMF Economic Issues 24, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2009. "Liquidity (risk) concepts: definitions and interactions," Working Paper Series 1008, European Central Bank.
    4. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2000. "The Pros and Cons of Full Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 2000/050, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Philip Turner, 2012. "Weathering financial crisis: domestic bond markets in EMEs," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Weathering financial crises: bond markets in Asia and the Pacific, volume 63, pages 15-34, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2000. "Full Dollarization: The Pros and Cons," IMF Economic Issues 2000/004, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Christian Hawkesby & Christie Smith & Christine Tether, 2000. "New Zealand's currency risk premium," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arellano, Cristina & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2010. "Dollarization and financial integration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 944-973, May.
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Carmen Reinhart & Douglas Barrios & Clement Brenot & Jesus Daboin Pacheco & Clemens Graf von Luckner & Frank Muci & Lucila Venturi, 2023. "Towards a Sustainable Recovery for Lebanon's Economy," CID Working Papers 439, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Regimes, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Africa," Working Papers wp55, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    4. Carlos Viñuela & Juan Sapena & Gonzalo Wandosell, 2020. "The Future of Money and the Central Bank Digital Currency Dilemma," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    5. Mr. Felix Fischer & Charlotte J. Lundgren & Mr. Samir Jahjah, 2013. "Making Monetary Policy More Effective: The Case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2013/226, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Raphael Auer & Codruta Boar & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Henry Holden & Andreas Wehrli, 2021. "CBDCs beyond borders: results from a survey of central banks," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 116.
    7. Daianu, Daniel & Vranceanu, Radu, 2003. "Subduing High Inflation In Romania. How To Better Monetary And Exchange Rate Mechanisms?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-36, September.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-50, May.
    9. Winkler, Adalbert, 2001. "On the need for an international lender of last resort: Lessons from domestic financial markets," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 28, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Hochreiter, Eduard & Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Alternative exchange-rate regimes: The options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 195-211, December.
    11. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2006. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0609, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Krzysztof Makarski, 2014. "Dollarization as a signaling device," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(1), pages 17-36.
    13. Stanisic, Nenad, 2012. "Effects of international monetary integration on inflation, economic growth and current account," MPRA Paper 38938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Owen F. Humpage, 2002. "An incentive-compatible suggestion for seigniorage sharing with dollarizing countries," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
    15. Cordeiro, Jose Luis, 2008. "Monetary Systems in Developing Countries: An Unorthodox View," IDE Discussion Papers 154, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. K. Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2002. "Dual Inflation under the Currency Board. The challenges of Bulgarian EU accession," Post-Print halshs-00259861, HAL.
    17. Franziska Schobert, 2003. "Euroisation. Assessing the Loss of Seigniorage and the Impact on the Interest Premium in Central European Countries," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 913-935.
    18. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoit Coeuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2002-07, CEPII research center.
    19. Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi, 2021. "Redistribution of wealth through cross border financial transactions: A closer look," MPRA Paper 109374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Shalendra Sharma, 2001. "Exchange rate regimes in post-crisis Asia: What explains the “hollowing of the middle”," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 3-21.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fixed income yield; marginal investor; decomposition; premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.