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Econometric Testing of the Displacement Effect: the Saudi Experience

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  • Ageli, Mohammed
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    Abstract

    In this paper we have to explore the Displacement Effect in Saudi Arabia during the period (1970-2012) for real oil GDP and Non Oil GDP. We used a method as a time series econometrics techniques to examine how far the Displacement Effect validity can be applied in Saudi economy, by Using time series annual data for the periods during (1970 to 2012), (1970 to 1990) and (1991 to 2012). Three distinct time series techniques have been applied. The results obtained from the analyses find that the Peacock and Wiseman Version of Wagnerian proposition can explain the growth of government in Saudi Arabia, which holds for both the oil and non-oil income cases, and we have a structural break in the data. The findings also note that the existence of strong causality for Peacock and Wiseman Version of Wagner‟s law in the long run.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50565.

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    Date of creation: 13 Jul 2013
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    Publication status: Published in Journal of Transformative Entrepreneurship 2.1(2013): pp. 100-111
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50565

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    Keywords: Displacement Effect; Co-integration; Error Correction Model; Augmented Dickey Fuller; Government Expenditure; Economic Growth; Saudi Arabia;

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    1. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1979. "Approaches To the Analysis of Government Expenditure Growth," Public Finance Review, , vol. 7(1), pages 3-23, January.
    2. Henrekson, Magnus, 1990. "The Peacock and Wiseman displacement effect : A reappraisal and a new test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 245-260, October.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    4. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, June.
    5. Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 745, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Gabriella Legrenzi, 2004. "The Displacement Effect in the Growth of Governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 120(1_2), pages 191-204, 07.
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